All Outputs (30)

Describing financial crisis propagation through epidemic modelling on multiplex networks (2024)
Journal Article

This paper proposes a novel framework for modelling the spread of financial crises in complex networks, combining financial data, Extreme Value Theory and an epidemiological transmission model. We accommodate two key aspects of contagion modelling: f... Read More about Describing financial crisis propagation through epidemic modelling on multiplex networks.

SIR epidemics in populations with large sub-communities (2024)
Journal Article

We investigate final outcome properties of an SIR (susceptible → in-fective → recovered) epidemic model defined on a population of large sub-communities in which there is stronger disease transmission within the communities than between them. Our ana... Read More about SIR epidemics in populations with large sub-communities.

The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity (2023)
Journal Article

The disease-induced herd immunity level hD is the fraction of the population that must be infected by an epidemic to ensure that a new epidemic among the remaining susceptible population is not supercritical. For a homogeneously mixing population hD... Read More about The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity.

Strong convergence of an epidemic model with mixing groups (2023)
Journal Article

We consider an SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemic in a closed population of size n, in which infection spreads via mixing events, comprising individuals chosen uniformly at random from the population, which occur at the points of a Po... Read More about Strong convergence of an epidemic model with mixing groups.

The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data (2023)
Journal Article

During an epidemic outbreak, typically only partial information about the outbreak is known. A common scenario is that the infection times of individuals are unknown, but individuals, on displaying symptoms, are identified as infectious and removed f... Read More about The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data.

Asymptotic persistence time formulae for multitype birth-death processes (2023)
Journal Article

We consider a class of processes describing a population consisting of k types of individuals. The process is almost surely absorbed at the origin within finite time, and we study the expected time taken for such extinction to occur. We derive simple... Read More about Asymptotic persistence time formulae for multitype birth-death processes.

An epidemic model with short-lived mixing groups (2022)
Journal Article

Almost all epidemic models make the assumption that infection is driven by the interaction between pairs of individuals, one of whom is infectious and the other of whom is susceptible. However, in society individuals mix in groups of varying sizes, a... Read More about An epidemic model with short-lived mixing groups.

Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring (2021)
Journal Article

A stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a network, described initially by an Erd˝os-R´enyi random graph, in which susceptible individuals connected to infectious neighbours may drop... Read More about Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring.

Central limit theorems for SIR epidemics and percolation on configuration model random graphs (2021)
Journal Article

We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemic defined on a configuration model random graph, in which infective individuals can infect only their neighbours in the graph during an infectious period which has an arbitrary... Read More about Central limit theorems for SIR epidemics and percolation on configuration model random graphs.

The risk for a new COVID-19 wave and how it depends on R 0, the current immunity level and current restrictions (2021)
Journal Article

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit different regions differently. The current disease-induced immunity level î in a region approximately equals the cumulative fraction infected, which primarily depends on two factors: (i) the initial potential for COVID-1... Read More about The risk for a new COVID-19 wave and how it depends on R 0, the current immunity level and current restrictions.

A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 (2020)
Journal Article

Despite various levels of preventive measures, in 2020 many countries have suffered severely from the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. We show that population heter... Read More about A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges (2019)
Journal Article

A Markovian SIR (Susceptible – Infectious - Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take preventive measures by dropping edges to infectious neighbours. An ef... Read More about A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges.

Susceptibility sets and the final outcome of collective Reed–Frost epidemics (2018)
Journal Article

This paper is concerned with exact results for the final outcome of stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemics among a closed, finite and homogeneously mixing population. The factorial moments of the number of initial susceptibles... Read More about Susceptibility sets and the final outcome of collective Reed–Frost epidemics.

Uncertainty in geometry of fibre preforms manufactured with Automated Dry Fibre Placement and its effects on permeability (2017)
Journal Article

© 2017, The Author(s) 2017. Resin transfer moulding is one of several processes available for manufacturing fibre-reinforced composites from dry fibre reinforcement. Recently, dry reinforcements made with Automated Dry Fibre Placement have been intro... Read More about Uncertainty in geometry of fibre preforms manufactured with Automated Dry Fibre Placement and its effects on permeability.

Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure (2017)
Journal Article

This paper is concerned with the analysis of vaccination strategies in a stochastic SIR (susceptible ? infected ? removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals with a random network of social contacts that is also p... Read More about Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure.

The asymptotic variance of the giant component of configuration model random graphs (2017)
Journal Article

For a supercritical configuration model random graph it is well known that, subject to mild conditions, there exists a unique giant component, whose size $R_n$ is $O (n)$, where $n$ is the total number of vertices in the random graph. Moreover, there... Read More about The asymptotic variance of the giant component of configuration model random graphs.

The relationships between message passing, pairwise, Kermack–McKendrick and stochastic SIR epidemic models (2017)
Journal Article

We consider a very general stochastic model for an SIR epidemic on a network which allows an individual’s infectious period, and the time it takes to contact each of its neighbours after becoming infected, to be correlated. We write down the message... Read More about The relationships between message passing, pairwise, Kermack–McKendrick and stochastic SIR epidemic models.

An epidemic in a dynamic population with importation of infectives (2017)
Journal Article

Consider a large uniformly mixing dynamic population, which has constant birth rate and exponentially distributed lifetimes, with mean population size $n$. A Markovian SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) infectious disease, having impo... Read More about An epidemic in a dynamic population with importation of infectives.

Heterogeneous network epidemics: real-time growth, variance and extinction of infection (2017)
Journal Article

© 2017, The Author(s). Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model... Read More about Heterogeneous network epidemics: real-time growth, variance and extinction of infection.

The deterministic Kermack?McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic (2016)
Journal Article

We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected number of s... Read More about The deterministic Kermack?McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic.