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The risk for a new COVID-19 wave and how it depends on R 0, the current immunity level and current restrictions

Britton, Tom; Trapman, Pieter; Ball, Frank

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Authors

Tom Britton

Pieter Trapman

FRANK BALL frank.ball@nottingham.ac.uk
Professor of Applied Probability



Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit different regions differently. The current disease-induced immunity level î in a region approximately equals the cumulative fraction infected, which primarily depends on two factors: (i) the initial potential for COVID-19 in the region (R0), and (ii) the preventive measures put in place. Using a mathematical model including heterogeneities owing to age, social activity and susceptibility, and allowing for time-varying preventive measures, the risk for a new epidemic wave and its doubling time are investigated. Focus lies on quantifying the minimal overall effect of preventive measures pMin needed to prevent a future outbreak. It is shown that î plays a more influential roll than when immunity is obtained from vaccination. Secondly, by comparing regions with different R0 and î it is shown that regions with lower R0 and low î may need higher preventive measures (pMin) compared with regions having higher R0 but also higher î, even when such immunity levels are far from herd immunity. Our results are illustrated on different regions but these comparisons contain lots of uncertainty due to simplistic model assumptions and insufficient data fitting, and should accordingly be interpreted with caution.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jul 14, 2021
Online Publication Date Jul 28, 2021
Publication Date 2021-07
Deposit Date Jul 29, 2021
Publicly Available Date Jul 29, 2021
Journal Royal Society Open Science
Electronic ISSN 2054-5703
Publisher The Royal Society
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 8
Issue 7
Article Number 210386
DOI https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210386
Keywords Multidisciplinary
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/5870480
Publisher URL https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.210386

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