Tom Britton
A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2
Britton, Tom; Ball, Frank; Trapman, Pieter
Abstract
Despite various levels of preventive measures, in 2020 many countries have suffered severely from the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. We show that population heterogeneity can significantly impact disease-induced immunity as the proportion infected in groups with the highest contact rates is greater than in groups with low contact rates. We estimate that if R0 = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be around 43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60% obtained through homogeneous immunization of the population. Our estimates should be interpreted as an illustration of how population heterogeneity affects herd immunity, rather than an exact value or even a best estimate.
Citation
Britton, T., Ball, F., & Trapman, P. (2020). A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Science, 369(6505), 846-849. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc6810
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Jun 18, 2020 |
Online Publication Date | Jun 23, 2020 |
Publication Date | Aug 14, 2020 |
Deposit Date | Jul 17, 2020 |
Publicly Available Date | Mar 29, 2024 |
Journal | Science |
Print ISSN | 0036-8075 |
Electronic ISSN | 1095-9203 |
Publisher | American Association for the Advancement of Science |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 369 |
Issue | 6505 |
Article Number | eabc6810 |
Pages | 846-849 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc6810 |
Public URL | https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/4771351 |
Publisher URL | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/science.abc6810 |
Files
Science.abc6810.full
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Publisher Licence URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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