All Outputs (31)

The deterministic Kermack?McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic (2016)
Journal Article

We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected number of s... Read More about The deterministic Kermack?McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic.

Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics: the effect of common population structure is small (2016)
Journal Article

When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease, it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R0 and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These parameters are est... Read More about Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics: the effect of common population structure is small.

On expected durations of birth-death processes with applications to branching processes and SIS epidemics (2016)
Journal Article

We study continuous-time birth–death type processes, where individuals have independent and identically distributed lifetimes, according to a random variable Q, with E[Q] = 1, and where the birth rate if the population is currently in state (has size... Read More about On expected durations of birth-death processes with applications to branching processes and SIS epidemics.

Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures II: comparisons and implications for vaccination (2016)
Journal Article

In this paper we consider epidemic models of directly transmissible SIR (susceptible - infective - recovered) and SEIR (with an additional latent class) infections in fully-susceptible populations with a social structure, consisting either of househo... Read More about Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures II: comparisons and implications for vaccination.

Estimating the within-household infection rate in emerging SIR epidemics among a community of households (2015)
Journal Article

This paper is concerned with estimation of the within household infection rate ?L for a susceptible ? infective ? recovered epidemic among a population of households, from observation of the early, exponentially growing phase of an epidemic. Specific... Read More about Estimating the within-household infection rate in emerging SIR epidemics among a community of households.

Stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of functions defined on Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, with application to vaccination in epidemic modelling (2014)
Journal Article

This paper is concerned with Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, describing spread of an epidemic depending on the proportion of the population that is vaccinated. Births in the branching process are aborted independently with a time-dependent pro... Read More about Stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of functions defined on Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, with application to vaccination in epidemic modelling.

Epidemics on random intersection graphs (2014)
Journal Article

In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible → Infectious → Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of cliques, each of rando... Read More about Epidemics on random intersection graphs.

Household epidemic models with varying infection response (2010)
Journal Article

This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible--infected--removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an individual. Two different mode... Read More about Household epidemic models with varying infection response.

An SIR epidemic model on a population with random network and household structure and several types of individuals (2010)
Journal Article

We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → removed) epidemic model with several types of individuals. Infectious individuals can make infectious contacts on two levels, within their own ‘household’ and with their neighbours in a random g... Read More about An SIR epidemic model on a population with random network and household structure and several types of individuals.

Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure (2010)
Journal Article

This paper is concerned with a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals, with a random network of social contacts, that is also partitioned into households. The behaviour o... Read More about Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure.

Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure (2009)
Journal Article

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within 'households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the e... Read More about Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure.