Skip to main content

Research Repository

See what's under the surface

Advanced Search

Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure

Ball, Frank G.; Sirl, David J.; Trapman, Pieter

Authors

Frank G. Ball

David J. Sirl

Pieter Trapman



Abstract

This paper is concerned with a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals, with a random network of social contacts, that is also partitioned into households. The behaviour of the model as the population size tends to infinity in an appropriate fashion is investigated. A threshold parameter which determines whether or not an epidemic with few initial infectives can become established and lead to a major outbreak is obtained, as are the probability that a major outbreak occurs and the expected proportion of the population that are ultimately infected by such an outbreak, together with methods for calculating these quantities. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these asymptotic quantities accurately reflect the behaviour of finite populations, even for only moderately sized finite populations. The model is compared and contrasted with related models previously studied in the literature. The effects of the amount of clustering present in the overall population structure and the infectious period distribution on the outcomes of the model are also explored.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Jan 1, 2010
Journal Mathematical Biosciences
Print ISSN 0025-5564
Electronic ISSN 0025-5564
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 224
Issue 2
APA6 Citation Ball, F. G., Sirl, D. J., & Trapman, P. (2010). Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure. Mathematical Biosciences, 224(2), doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2009.12.003
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2009.12.003
Publisher URL http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505777/description#description
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingh.../end_user_agreement.pdf

Files

BSTapplied2010.pdf (510 Kb)
PDF

Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/end_user_agreement.pdf





You might also like



Downloadable Citations

;