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Posterior Predictive Checking for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemic Models (2022)
Journal Article
Aristotelous, G., Kypraios, T., & O'Neill, P. D. (2023). Posterior Predictive Checking for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemic Models. Bayesian Analysis, 18(4), 1283-1310. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-ba1336

We address the problem of assessing the fit of stochastic epidemic models to data. Two novel model assessment methods are developed, based on disease progression curves, namely the distance method and the position-time method. The methods are illustr... Read More about Posterior Predictive Checking for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemic Models.

Antimicrobial resistance in dairy slurry tanks: a critical point for measurement and control (2022)
Journal Article
Baker, M., Williams, A. D., Hooton, S. P., Helliwell, R., King, E., Dodsworth, T., …Stekel, D. J. (2022). Antimicrobial resistance in dairy slurry tanks: a critical point for measurement and control. Environment International, 169, Article 107516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2022.107516

Waste from dairy production is one of the largest sources of contamination from antimicrobial resistant bacteria (ARB) and genes (ARGs) in many parts of the world. However, studies to date do not provide necessary evidence to inform antimicrobial res... Read More about Antimicrobial resistance in dairy slurry tanks: a critical point for measurement and control.

Bayesian nonparametric inference for heterogeneously mixing infectious disease models (2022)
Journal Article
Seymour, R. G., Kypraios, T., & O'Neill, P. D. (2022). Bayesian nonparametric inference for heterogeneously mixing infectious disease models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(10), Article e2118425119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2118425119

Infectious disease transmissionmodels require assumptions about how the pathogen spreads between individuals. These assumptions may be somewhat arbitrary, particularly when it comes to describing how transmission varies between individuals of differe... Read More about Bayesian nonparametric inference for heterogeneously mixing infectious disease models.