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Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change (2013)
Journal Article
Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., …Wisser, D. (2014). Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3239-3244. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222474110

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agri... Read More about Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change (2013)
Journal Article
Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N. W., Clark, D. B., …Kabat, P. (2014). Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3245-3250. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, ren... Read More about Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world (2013)
Journal Article
Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T. A., Clark, D. B., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., …Schellnhuber, H. J. (2014). Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3233-3238. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222471110

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, qu... Read More about Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world.

Global multimodel analysis of drought in runofffor the second half of the twentieth century (2013)
Journal Article
van Huijgevoort, M., Hazenberg, P., van Lanen, H., Teuling, A., Clark, D., Folwell, S., …Uijlenhoet, R. (2013). Global multimodel analysis of drought in runofffor the second half of the twentieth century. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14(5), 1535-1552. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0186.1

During the past decades large-scale models have been developed to simulate global and continental terrestrial water cycles. It is an open question whether these models are suitable to capture hydrological drought, in terms of runoff, on a global scal... Read More about Global multimodel analysis of drought in runofffor the second half of the twentieth century.

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity (2013)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., & Arnell, N. (2013). A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Climatic Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water re... Read More about A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity.

The AVOID programme's new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation (2013)
Journal Article
Warren, R., Lowe, J. A., Arnell, N. W., Hope, C., Berry, P., Brown, S., …Vanderwal, J. (2013). The AVOID programme's new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation. Climatic Change, 120(1-2), 55-70. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0814-4

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both ph... Read More about The AVOID programme's new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation.

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models (2013)
Journal Article
Hagemann, S., Chen, C., Clark, D. B., Folwell, S., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., …Wiltshire, A. J. (2013). Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models. Earth System Dynamics, 4(1), 129-144. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013

Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrolo... Read More about Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models.

The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale (2013)
Journal Article
Arnell, N. W., & Gosling, S. N. (2013). The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale. Journal of Hydrology, 486, 351-364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP... Read More about The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale.

Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models (2013)
Journal Article
Thompson, J. R., Green, A. J., Kingston, D. G., & Gosling, S. N. (2013). Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models. Journal of Hydrology, 486, 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.029

Hydrological model-related uncertainty is often ignored within climate change hydrological impact assessments. A MIKE SHE model is developed for the Mekong using the same data as an earlier semi-distributed, conceptual model (SLURP). The model is cal... Read More about Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models.

The SSC: A decade of climate-health research and future directions (2013)
Journal Article
Hondula, D. M., Vanos, J. K., & Gosling, S. N. (2014). The SSC: A decade of climate-health research and future directions. International Journal of Biometeorology, 58(2), 109-120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0619-6

This year marks the tenth anniversary of the development of the revised Spatial Synoptic Classification, the "SSC", by Scott Sheridan. This daily weather-type classification scheme has become one of the key analytical tools implemented in a diverse r... Read More about The SSC: A decade of climate-health research and future directions.

A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change (2013)
Journal Article
Arnell, N. W., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Gosling, S. N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., …Warren, R. F. (2013). A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3(5), 512-519. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1793

This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered h... Read More about A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change.

The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services (2012)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N. (2013). The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services. Environmental Science and Policy, 27(Supplement 1), S15-S31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.03.011

This article reviews the level of current scientific understanding regarding the impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services. Impacts from sea level rise, ocean acidification, increases in ocean temperature,... Read More about The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services.

Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results (2011)
Journal Article
Haddeland, I., Clark, D. B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., Voß, F., Arnell, N. W., …Yeh, P. (2011). Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12(5), 869-884. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1324.1

Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project [WaterModel Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP)], which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a... Read More about Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: Setup and first results.

The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: An example with heat-related mortality change estimates (2011)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., McGregor, G. R., & Lowe, J. A. (2012). The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: An example with heat-related mortality change estimates. Climatic Change, 112(2), 217-231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0211-9

The majority of climate change impacts assessments account for climate change uncertainty by adopting the scenario-based approach. This typically involves assessing the impacts for a small number of emissions scenarios but neglecting the role of clim... Read More about The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: An example with heat-related mortality change estimates.

A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part II: The global-scale impacts of climate change (2011)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., Warren, R., Arnell, N. W., Good, P., Caesar, J., Bernie, D., …Smith, S. M. (2011). A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part II: The global-scale impacts of climate change. Progress in Physical Geography, 35(4), 443-464. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133311407650

This article presents a review of recent developments in studies assessing the global-scale impacts of climate change published since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Literature covering six main im... Read More about A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part II: The global-scale impacts of climate change.

A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part I: Understanding of future change in the large-scale climate system (2011)
Journal Article
Good, P., Caesar, J., Bernie, D., Lowe, J. A., van der Linden, P., Gosling, S. N., …McNeall, D. (2011). A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part I: Understanding of future change in the large-scale climate system. Progress in Physical Geography, 35(3), 281-296. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133311407651

This article reviews some of the major lines of recent scientific progress relevant to the choice of global climate policy targets, focusing on changes in understanding since publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessm... Read More about A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part I: Understanding of future change in the large-scale climate system.

Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: Model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis (2011)
Journal Article
Gosling, S. N., & Arnell, N. W. (2011). Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: Model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis. Hydrological Processes, 25(7), 1129-1145. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7727

Global hydrological models (GHMs) model the land surface hydrologic dynamics of continental-scale river basins. Here we describe one such GHM, the Macro-scale-Probability-Distributed Moisture model.09 (Mac-PDM.09). The model has undergone a number of... Read More about Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: Model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis.