All Outputs (42)

Estimating carbon footprints from large scale financial transaction data (2022)
Journal Article
Trendl, A., Owen, A., Vomfell, L., Kilian, L., Gathergood, J., Stewart, N., & Leake, D. (2023). Estimating carbon footprints from large scale financial transaction data. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 27(1), 56-70. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13351

Financial transactions are increasingly used by consumer apps and financial service providers to estimate consumption-based carbon emissions. This approach promises a low-resource, ultra-fast, and highly scalable approach to measuring emissions at di... Read More about Estimating carbon footprints from large scale financial transaction data.

The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity (2022)
Journal Article
Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Mizen, P., Smietanka, P., & Thwaites, G. (in press). The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity. Review of Economics and Statistics,

We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on productivity using data from an innovative monthly firm survey that asks for quantitative impacts of Covid-19 on inputs and outputs. We find total factor productivity (TFP) fell by up to 6% during 2020-21. The ove... Read More about The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity.

Procrastination in the Field: Evidence from Tax Filing (2022)
Journal Article
Martinez, S., Meier, S., & Sprenger, C. (2022). Procrastination in the Field: Evidence from Tax Filing. Journal of the European Economic Association, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac067

Understanding the structure of time preferences allows for accurate predictions of the effects of changing intertemporal incentives. Behavioral models of present bias are used to rationalize field data seemingly at odds with exponential discounting,... Read More about Procrastination in the Field: Evidence from Tax Filing.

The trade-GDP ratio as a measure of openness (2022)
Journal Article
Bleaney, M., & Tian, M. (2023). The trade-GDP ratio as a measure of openness. World Economy, 46(5), 1319-1332. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13355

The ratio of trade to GDP is often used as a summary measure of a country's openness to the rest of the world. It is well known that the trade-GDP ratio is affected by relatively time-invariant factors, such as country size and remoteness from tradin... Read More about The trade-GDP ratio as a measure of openness.

The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession (2022)
Journal Article
Jacob, N., & Mion, G. (2023). The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 85(5), 993-1022. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12533

We revisit the weak productivity performance of the UK since the Great Recession by means of both a suitable theoretical framework and firm-level price and quantity data for detailed products, allowing us to measure both demand and its changes over t... Read More about The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession.

The Value of Managers' Export Experience: Lessons from the Angolan Civil War (2022)
Journal Article
Mion, G., Opromolla, L. D., Sforza, A., Ornelas, E., Ottaviano, G., Overman, H., & Pisch, F. (in press). The Value of Managers' Export Experience: Lessons from the Angolan Civil War. Review of Economics and Statistics, https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01278

We investigate how managers help firms grow by entering a new export market. We conduct an event study on the decision to export to Angola using data on Portuguese firms and workers. We evaluate the impact of the presence of managers with experience... Read More about The Value of Managers' Export Experience: Lessons from the Angolan Civil War.

Communicating the move to individualized donor selection policy: Framing messages focused on recipients and safety (2022)
Journal Article
Ferguson, E., Bowen, S., Lawrence, C., Starmer, C., Barr, A., Davison, K., …Brailsford, S. R. (2023). Communicating the move to individualized donor selection policy: Framing messages focused on recipients and safety. Transfusion, 63(1), 171-181. https://doi.org/10.1111/trf.17175

Background: Men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) have been deferred from donating blood. However, recent evidence supports the adoption of donor screening based on individuals' sexual behavior over population-based criteria. We explore how best to frame c... Read More about Communicating the move to individualized donor selection policy: Framing messages focused on recipients and safety.

Inference in Heavy-Tailed Nonstationary Multivariate Time Series (2022)
Journal Article
Barigozzi, M., Cavaliere, G., & Trapani, L. (2024). Inference in Heavy-Tailed Nonstationary Multivariate Time Series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 119(545), 565-581. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2022.2128807

We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a nonstationary, N-variate time series yt, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail index, or even kno... Read More about Inference in Heavy-Tailed Nonstationary Multivariate Time Series.

Bankruptcy costs, idiosyncratic risk, and long-run growth (2022)
Journal Article
Acosta-Ormaechea, S., & Morozumi, A. (2023). Bankruptcy costs, idiosyncratic risk, and long-run growth. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(7), 1807-1842. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000475

This paper analyzes how idiosyncratic risk, measured by the variance of firm-level idiosyncratic shocks, affects long-run growth when bankruptcy costs are present. These costs are incurred by creditors during the bankruptcy procedure of failing firms... Read More about Bankruptcy costs, idiosyncratic risk, and long-run growth.

Superkurtosis (2022)
Journal Article
Degiannakis, S., Filis, G., Siourounis, G., & Trapani, L. (2023). Superkurtosis. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 55(8), 2061-2091. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12988

Very little is known on how traditional risk metrics behave under intraday trading. We fill this void by examining the finiteness of the returns' moments and assessing the impact of their infinity in a risk management framework. We show that when int... Read More about Superkurtosis.

Changepoint Detection in Heteroscedastic Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models (2022)
Journal Article
Horváth, L., & Trapani, L. (2023). Changepoint Detection in Heteroscedastic Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 41(4), 1300-1314. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2120485

We propose a family of CUSUM-based statistics to detect the presence of changepoints in the deterministic part of the autoregressive parameter in a Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) sequence. Our tests can be applied irrespective of whether the... Read More about Changepoint Detection in Heteroscedastic Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models.

An inquiry into the nature and causes of the Description - Experience gap (2022)
Journal Article
Cubitt, R., Kopsacheilis, O., & Starmer, C. (2022). An inquiry into the nature and causes of the Description - Experience gap. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 65(2), 105-137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09393-w

The Description-Experience gap (DE gap) is widely thought of as a tendency for people to act as if overweighting rare events when information about those events is derived from descriptions but as if underweighting rare events when they experience th... Read More about An inquiry into the nature and causes of the Description - Experience gap.

The Persistence of Healthy Behaviors in Food Purchasing (2022)
Journal Article
Hinnosaar, M. (2023). The Persistence of Healthy Behaviors in Food Purchasing. Marketing Science, 42(3), 521-537. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2022.1396

When a policy gives temporary incentives for healthy behaviors, how long does the impact last? The U.S. Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children gives food vouchers to young children and their mothers. Using household-l... Read More about The Persistence of Healthy Behaviors in Food Purchasing.

Protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled study of a multicomponent intervention to promote a sustainable return to work of workers on long-term sick leave — PROWORK: PROmoting a Sustainable and Healthy Return to WORK (2022)
Journal Article
Varela-Mato, V., Godfree, K., Adem, A., Blake, H., Bartle, C., Daly, G., …Munir, F. (2022). Protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled study of a multicomponent intervention to promote a sustainable return to work of workers on long-term sick leave — PROWORK: PROmoting a Sustainable and Healthy Return to WORK. Pilot and Feasibility Studies, 8(1), Article 188. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40814-022-01143-8

Background: The cost of sickness absence has major social, psychological and financial implications for individuals and organisations. Return-to-work (RTW) interventions that support good quality communication and contact with the workplace can reduc... Read More about Protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled study of a multicomponent intervention to promote a sustainable return to work of workers on long-term sick leave — PROWORK: PROmoting a Sustainable and Healthy Return to WORK.

Coalition Formation in Games with Externalities (2022)
Journal Article
Montero, M. (2022). Coalition Formation in Games with Externalities. Dynamic Games and Applications, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13235-022-00460-0

This paper studies an extensive form game of coalition formation with random proposers in games with externalities. It is shown that an agreement will be reached without delay if any set of coalitions profits from merging. Even under this strong cond... Read More about Coalition Formation in Games with Externalities.

Prediction of nitrogen excretion from data on dairy cows fed a wide range of diets compiled in an intercontinental database: A meta-analysis (2022)
Journal Article
Bougouin, A., Hristov, A., Dijkstra, J., Aguerre, M. J., Ahvenjärvi, S., Arndt, C., …Kebreab, E. (2022). Prediction of nitrogen excretion from data on dairy cows fed a wide range of diets compiled in an intercontinental database: A meta-analysis. Journal of Dairy Science, 105(9), 7462-7481. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2021-20885

Manure nitrogen (N) from cattle contributes to nitrous oxide and ammonia emissions and nitrate leaching. Measurement of manure N outputs on dairy farms is laborious, expensive, and impractical at large scales; therefore, models are needed to predict... Read More about Prediction of nitrogen excretion from data on dairy cows fed a wide range of diets compiled in an intercontinental database: A meta-analysis.

Preferences and Perceptions in Provision and Maintenance Public Goods (2022)
Journal Article
Gächter, S., Kölle, F., & Quercia, S. (2022). Preferences and Perceptions in Provision and Maintenance Public Goods. Games and Economic Behavior, 135, 338-355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.06.009

We study two generic versions of public goods problems: in Provision problems, the public good does not exist initially and needs to be provided; in Maintenance problems, the public good already exists and needs to be maintained. In four lab and onli... Read More about Preferences and Perceptions in Provision and Maintenance Public Goods.

Malleability of Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from Migrants (2022)
Journal Article
Hinnosaar, M., & Liu, E. M. (2022). Malleability of Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from Migrants. Journal of Health Economics, 85, Article 102648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102648

How malleable is alcohol consumption? Specifically, how much is alcohol consumption driven by the current environment versus individual characteristics? To answer this question, we analyze changes in alcohol purchases when consumers move from one sta... Read More about Malleability of Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from Migrants.

The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity (2022)
Working Paper
Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Mizen, P., Smietanka, P., & Thwaites, G. The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity

We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on productivity using data from an innovative monthly firm survey panel that asks for quantitative impacts of Covid on inputs and outputs. We find total factor productivity (TFP) fell by up to 5% during 2020-21. The... Read More about The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity.

Democracy, growth, heterogeneity, and robustness (2022)
Journal Article
Eberhardt, M. (2022). Democracy, growth, heterogeneity, and robustness. European Economic Review, 147, Article 104173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104173

I motivate and empirically investigate differential long-run growth effects of democratisation across countries. While the existing literature recognises the potential for such heterogeneity, empirical implementations to date unanimously assume a com... Read More about Democracy, growth, heterogeneity, and robustness.