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One swallow doesn't make a summer: new evidence on anchoring effects

Maniadis, Zacharias; Tufano, Fabio; List, John A.

Authors

Zacharias Maniadis

Fabio Tufano

John A. List



Abstract

Some researchers have argued that anchoring in economic valuations casts doubt on the assumption of consistent and stable preferences. We present new evidence that explores the strength of certain anchoring results. We then present a theoretical framework that provides insights into why we should be cautious of initial empirical findings in general. The model importantly highlights that the rate of false positives depends not only on the observed significance level, but also on statistical power, research priors, and the number of scholars exploring the question. Importantly, a few independent replications dramatically increase the chances that the original finding is true.

Citation

Maniadis, Z., Tufano, F., & List, J. A. (2014). One swallow doesn't make a summer: new evidence on anchoring effects. American Economic Review, 104(1), https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.1.277

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Jan 1, 2014
Deposit Date Jan 25, 2016
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal American Economic Review
Print ISSN 0002-8282
Electronic ISSN 0002-8282
Publisher American Economic Association
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 104
Issue 1
DOI https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.1.277
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/997508
Publisher URL https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.1.277
Additional Information Copyright c2015 by the American Economic Association.
Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of American Economic Association publications for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not distributed for profit or direct commercial advantage.

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