One swallow doesn't make a summer: new evidence on anchoring effects

Maniadis, Zacharias; Tufano, Fabio; List, John A.

Abstract

Some researchers have argued that anchoring in economic valuations casts doubt on the assumption of consistent and stable preferences. We present new evidence that explores the strength of certain anchoring results. We then present a theoretical framework that provides insights into why we should be cautious of initial empirical findings in general. The model importantly highlights that the rate of false positives depends not only on the observed significance level, but also on statistical power, research priors, and the number of scholars exploring the question. Importantly, a few independent replications dramatically increase the chances that the original finding is true.

Citation

Maniadis, Z., Tufano, F., & List, J. A. (2014). One swallow doesn't make a summer: new evidence on anchoring effects. American Economic Review, 104(1), https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.1.277

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2014
• Deposit Date: Jan 25, 2016
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 25, 2016
• Journal: American Economic Review
• Print ISSN: 0002-8282
• Electronic ISSN: 1944-7981
• Publisher: American Economic Association
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 104
• Issue: 1
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.1.277
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/997508
• Publisher URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.1.277
• Additional Information: Copyright c2015 by the American Economic Association. ; Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of American Economic Association publications for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not distributed for profit or direct commercial advantage.