Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance

Walton, Laura; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S.; White, Piran C.L.; Smith, Lesley A.; Gavier-Widen, Dolores; Yon, Lisa; Hannant, Duncan; Hutchings, Michael R.

Authors

Laura Walton

Glenn Marion

Ross S. Davidson

Piran C.L. White

Lesley A. Smith

Dolores Gavier-Widen

LISA YON lisa.yon@nottingham.ac.uk
Associate Professor

Duncan Hannant

Michael R. Hutchings



Abstract

1. Wildlife disease surveillance is the first line of defence against infectious disease. Fluctuations in host populations and disease prevalence are a known feature of wildlife disease systems. However, the impact of such heterogeneities on the performance of surveillance is currently poorly understood.
2. We present the first systematic exploration of the effects of fluctuations prevalence and host population size on the efficacy of wildlife disease surveillance systems. In this study efficacy is measured in terms of ability to estimate long term prevalence and detect disease risk.
3. Our results suggest that for many wildlife disease systems fluctuations in population size and disease lead to bias in surveillance-based estimates of prevalence and over-confidence in assessments of both the precision of prevalence estimates and the power to detect disease.
4. Neglecting such ecological effects may lead to poorly designed surveillance and ultimately to incorrect assessments of the risks posed by disease in wildlife. This will be most problematic in systems where prevalence fluctuations are large and disease fade-outs occur. Such fluctuations are determined by the interaction of demography and disease dynamics and although particularly likely in highly fluctuating populations typical of fecund short lived hosts, can’t be ruled out in more stable populations of longer lived hosts.
5. Synthesis and Applications: Fluctuations in population size and disease prevalence should be considered in the design and implementation of wildlife disease surveillance and the framework presented here provides a template for conducting suitable power calculations. Ultimately understanding the impact of fluctuations in demographic and epidemiological processes will enable improvements to wildlife disease surveillance systems leading to better characterisation of, and protection against endemic, emerging and re-emerging disease threats.

Citation

Walton, L., Marion, G., Davidson, R. S., White, P. C., Smith, L. A., Gavier-Widen, D., …Hutchings, M. R. (2016). The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance. Journal of Applied Ecology, 53(5), https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12671

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Apr 4, 2016
Online Publication Date Apr 29, 2016
Publication Date Oct 31, 2016
Deposit Date Oct 26, 2016
Publicly Available Date Oct 26, 2016
Journal Journal of Applied Ecology
Print ISSN 0021-8901
Electronic ISSN 1365-2664
Publisher Wiley
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 53
Issue 5
DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12671
Keywords demographic fluctuations, disease surveillance, disease transmission models, stochastic population models, wildlife disease systems, wildlife ecology, wildlife populations
Public URL http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/37946
Publisher URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2664.12671/abstract
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingh.../end_user_agreement.pdf
Additional Information This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Walton, L., Marion, G., Davidson, R. S., White, P. C.L., Smith, L. A., Gavier-Widen, D., Yon, L., Hannant, D., Hutchings, M. R. (2016), The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance. Journal of Applied Ecology, 53: 1460–1469., which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1111/1365-2664.12671. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving."

Files

Walton-JAPPL-2015-00745.R2.pdf (1.3 Mb)
PDF

Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/end_user_agreement.pdf


Walton-JAPPL-2015-00745.R2 SI.pdf (1.3 Mb)
PDF

Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/end_user_agreement.pdf





You might also like



Downloadable Citations