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Dr Gavin Smith's Outputs (23)

Nutritional Implications of Alternative Proteins: A commentary (2025)
Journal Article
Davis, U., Bobo, J., Wilson, P., Noy, P., Mansilla Lobos, R., Long, G., Welham, S., Harvey, J., Lukinova, E., Nica-Avram, G., Smith, G., Salt, D., Smith, A., & Goulding, J. (in press). Nutritional Implications of Alternative Proteins: A commentary. Public Health Nutrition,

How the Predictors of Math Achievement Change Over Time: A Longitudinal Machine Learning Approach (2024)
Journal Article
Lavelle-Hill, R., Frenzel, A. C., Goetz, T., Lichtenfeld, S., Marsh, H. W., Pekrun, R., Sakaki, M., Smith, G., & Murayama, K. (2024). How the Predictors of Math Achievement Change Over Time: A Longitudinal Machine Learning Approach. Journal of Educational Psychology, 116(8), 1383–1403. https://doi.org/10.1037/edu0000863

Researchers have focused extensively on understanding the factors influencing students’ academic achievement over time. However, existing longitudinal studies have often examined only a limited number of predictors at one time, leaving gaps in our kn... Read More about How the Predictors of Math Achievement Change Over Time: A Longitudinal Machine Learning Approach.

Detecting iodine deficiency risks from dietary transitions using shopping data (2024)
Journal Article
Mansilla, R., Long, G., Welham, S., Harvey, J., Lukinova, E., Nica-Avram, G., Smith, G., Salt, D., Smith, A., & Goulding, J. (2024). Detecting iodine deficiency risks from dietary transitions using shopping data. Scientific Reports, 14(1), Article 1017. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50180-7

Plant-based product replacements are gaining popularity. However, the long-term health implications remain poorly understood, and available methods, though accurate, are expensive and burdensome, impeding the study of sufficiently large cohorts. To i... Read More about Detecting iodine deficiency risks from dietary transitions using shopping data.

Assessing the value of integrating national longitudinal shopping data into respiratory disease forecasting models (2023)
Journal Article
Dolan, E., Goulding, J., Marshall, H., Smith, G., Long, G., & Tata, L. J. (2023). Assessing the value of integrating national longitudinal shopping data into respiratory disease forecasting models. Nature Communications, 14, Article 7258. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42776-4

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unparalleled pressure on healthcare services. Improved healthcare planning in relation to diseases affecting the respiratory system has consequently become a key concern. We investigated the value of integrating sales of... Read More about Assessing the value of integrating national longitudinal shopping data into respiratory disease forecasting models.

Bundle entropy as an optimized measure of consumers' systematic product choice combinations in mass transactional data (2022)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Mansilla, R., Smith, G., Smith, A., & Goulding, J. (2022, December). Bundle entropy as an optimized measure of consumers' systematic product choice combinations in mass transactional data. Presented at 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data), Osaka, Japan

Understanding and measuring the predictability of consumer purchasing (basket) behaviour is of significant value. While predictability measures such as entropy have been well studied and leveraged in other sectors, their development and application t... Read More about Bundle entropy as an optimized measure of consumers' systematic product choice combinations in mass transactional data.

Using mobile money data and call detail records to explore the risks of urban migration in Tanzania (2022)
Journal Article
Lavelle-Hill, R., Harvey, J., Smith, G., Mazumder, A., Ellis, M., Mwantimwa, K., & Goulding, J. (2022). Using mobile money data and call detail records to explore the risks of urban migration in Tanzania. EPJ Data Science, 11(8), Article 28. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00340-y

Understanding what factors predict whether an urban migrant will end up in a deprived neighbourhood or not could help prevent the exploitation of vulnerable individuals. This study leveraged pseudonymized mobile money interactions combined with cell... Read More about Using mobile money data and call detail records to explore the risks of urban migration in Tanzania.

Machine learning methods for “wicked” problems: exploring the complex drivers of modern slavery (2021)
Journal Article
Lavelle-Hill, R., Smith, G., Mazumder, A., Landman, T., & Goulding, J. (2021). Machine learning methods for “wicked” problems: exploring the complex drivers of modern slavery. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 8, Article 274. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00938-z

Forty million people are estimated to be in some form of modern slavery across the globe. Understanding the factors that make any particular individual or geographical region vulnerable to such abuse is essential for the development of effective inte... Read More about Machine learning methods for “wicked” problems: exploring the complex drivers of modern slavery.

Model Class Reliance for Random Forests (2020)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Smith, G., Mansilla Lobos, R., & Goulding, J. (2020, December). Model Class Reliance for Random Forests. Presented at 34th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2020), Vancouver, Canada

Variable Importance (VI) has traditionally been cast as the process of estimating each variable's contribution to a predictive model's overall performance. Analysis of a single model instance, however, guarantees no insight into a variables relevance... Read More about Model Class Reliance for Random Forests.

Exogenous cognition and cognitive state theory: The plexus of consumer analytics and decision-making (2020)
Journal Article
Smith, A., Harvey, J., Goulding, J., Smith, G., & Sparks, L. (2020). Exogenous cognition and cognitive state theory: The plexus of consumer analytics and decision-making. Marketing Theory, 21(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1177/1470593120964947

We develop the concept of exogenous cognition (ExC) as a specific manifestation of an external cognitive system (ECS). Exogenous cognition describes the technological and algorithmic extension of (and annexation of) cognition in a consumption context... Read More about Exogenous cognition and cognitive state theory: The plexus of consumer analytics and decision-making.

Identifying food insecurity in food sharing networks via machine learning (2020)
Journal Article
Nica-Avram, G., Harvey, J., Smith, G., Smith, A., & Goulding, J. (2021). Identifying food insecurity in food sharing networks via machine learning. Journal of Business Research, 131, 469-484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.09.028

© 2020 Elsevier Inc. Food insecurity in the UK has captured public attention. However, estimates of its prevalence are deeply contentious. The lack of precision on the volume of emergency food assistance currently provided to those in need is made ev... Read More about Identifying food insecurity in food sharing networks via machine learning.

Psychological and Demographic Predictors of Plastic Bag Consumption in Transaction Data (2020)
Journal Article
Lavelle-Hill, R., Goulding, J., Smith, G., Clarke, D., & Bibby, P. (2020). Psychological and Demographic Predictors of Plastic Bag Consumption in Transaction Data. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 72, Article 101473. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101473

Despite the success of plastic bag charges in the UK, there are still around a billion single-use plastic bags bought each year in England alone, and the government have made plans to increase the levy from 5 to 10 pence. Previous research has identi... Read More about Psychological and Demographic Predictors of Plastic Bag Consumption in Transaction Data.

The Smart Home: How Consumers Craft New Service Networks by Combining Heterogeneous Smart Domestic Products (2020)
Journal Article
Harvey, J., Poorrezaei, M., Woodall, T., Nica-Avram, G., Smith, G., Ajiboye, T., Kholodova, K., & Zhu, K. (2020). The Smart Home: How Consumers Craft New Service Networks by Combining Heterogeneous Smart Domestic Products. Journal of Service Research, 23(4), 504-526. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094670520929095

Service research suggests homes are becoming increasingly connected as consumers automate and personalize new forms of service provision. Yet large-scale empirical evidence on how and why consumers automate smart domestic products is lacking. To addr... Read More about The Smart Home: How Consumers Craft New Service Networks by Combining Heterogeneous Smart Domestic Products.

FIMS: Identifying, Predicting and Visualising Food Insecurity (2020)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Lucas, B., Smith, A., Smith, G., Perrat, B., Nica-Avram, G., Harvey, J., & Goulding, J. (2020, April). FIMS: Identifying, Predicting and Visualising Food Insecurity. Presented at The Web Conference 2020 - Companion of the World Wide Web Conference, WWW 2020, Taipei Taiwan

Food insecurity is a persistent and pernicious problem in the UK. Due to logistical challenges, national food insecurity statistics are unmeasured by government bodies - and this lack of data leads to any local estimates that do exist being routinely... Read More about FIMS: Identifying, Predicting and Visualising Food Insecurity.

The unbanked and poverty: predicting area-level socio-economic vulnerability from M-Money transactions (2018)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Engelmann, G., Smith, G., & Goulding, J. (2018, December). The unbanked and poverty: predicting area-level socio-economic vulnerability from M-Money transactions. Presented at 2018 IEEE international Conference on Big Data, Seattle, USA

Emerging economies around the world are often characterized by governments and institutions struggling to keep key demographic data streams up to date. A demographic of interest particularly linked to social vulnerability is that of poverty and socio... Read More about The unbanked and poverty: predicting area-level socio-economic vulnerability from M-Money transactions.

Data driven estimation of building interior plans (2017)
Journal Article
Rosser, J. F., Smith, G., & Morley, J. (in press). Data driven estimation of building interior plans. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 31(8), https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2017.1313980

This work investigates constructing plans of building interiors using learned building measurements. In particular, we address the problem of accurately estimating dimensions of rooms when measurements of the interior space have not been captured. Ou... Read More about Data driven estimation of building interior plans.

Event series prediction via non-homogeneous Poisson process modelling (2016)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Goulding, J., Preston, S. P., & Smith, G. (2016, December). Event series prediction via non-homogeneous Poisson process modelling. Presented at 2016 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM), Barcelona, Spain

Data streams whose events occur at random arrival times rather than at the regular, tick-tock intervals of traditional time series are increasingly prevalent. Event series are continuous, irregular and often highly sparse, differing greatly in nature... Read More about Event series prediction via non-homogeneous Poisson process modelling.

A novel symbolization technique for time-series outlier detection (2015)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Smith, G., & Goulding, J. A novel symbolization technique for time-series outlier detection. Presented at 2015 IEEE International Conference on Big Data

The detection of outliers in time series data is a core component of many data-mining applications and broadly applied in industrial applications. In large data sets algorithms that are efficient in both time and space are required. One area where sp... Read More about A novel symbolization technique for time-series outlier detection.

AMP: a new time-frequency feature extraction method for intermittent time-series data (2015)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Barrack, D. S., Goulding, J., Hopcraft, K., Preston, S., & Smith, G. AMP: a new time-frequency feature extraction method for intermittent time-series data. Presented at 1st International Workshop on Mining and Learning from Time Series (MiLeTS)

The characterisation of time-series data via their most salient features is extremely important in a range of machine learning task, not least of all with regards to classification and clustering. While there exist many feature extraction techniques... Read More about AMP: a new time-frequency feature extraction method for intermittent time-series data.

Modelling of building interiors with mobile phone sensor data (2015)
Journal Article
Rosser, J., Morley, J., & Smith, G. (2015). Modelling of building interiors with mobile phone sensor data. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 4(2), https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi4020989

Creating as-built plans of building interiors is a challenging task. In this paper we present a semi-automatic modelling system for creating residential building interior plans and their integration with existing map data to produce building models.... Read More about Modelling of building interiors with mobile phone sensor data.