Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change
(2023)
Journal Article
The Forecasting Collaborative, Grossmann, I., Rotella, A., Hutcherson, C. A., Sharpinskyi, K., Varnum, M. E. W., Achter, S., Dhami, M. K., Guo, X. E., Kara-Yakoubian, M., Mandel, D. R., Raes, L., Tay, L., Vie, A., Wagner, L., Adamkovic, M., Arami, A., Arriaga, P., Bandara, K., Baník, G., …Wilkening, T. (2023). Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(4), 484-501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in... Read More about Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change.