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All Outputs (94)

Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming (2021)
Journal Article
Thompson, J. R., Gosling, S. N., Zaherpour, J., & Laizé, C. L. R. (2021). Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming. Earth's Future, 9(11), Article e2021EF002048. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048

The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river e... Read More about Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming.

Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes (2021)
Journal Article
Thiery, W., Lange, S., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C. F., Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S. I., Andrijevic, M., Frieler, K., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Bresch, D. N., Zhao, F., Willner, S. N., Büchner, M., Volkholz, J., Bauer, N., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., François, L., …Wada, Y. (2021). Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science, 374(6564), 158-160. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades (1–4). Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across thei... Read More about Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes.

Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations (2021)
Journal Article
Boulange, J., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Yokohata, T., Shiogama, H., Burek, P., Thiery, W., Gerten, D., Müller Schmied, H., Wada, Y., Gosling, S. N., Pokhrel, Y., & Wanders, N. (2021). Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. Environmental Research Letters, 16(10), Article 104028. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc

Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium clima... Read More about Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations.

A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessments (2021)
Journal Article
Satoh, Y., Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N., Pokhrel, Y., Boulange, J. E. S., Burek, P., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Koutroulis, A., Müller Schmied, H., Thiery, W., & Yokohata, T. (2021). A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessments. Environmental Research Letters, 16(10), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2348

Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known,... Read More about A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessments.

Effects of climate change on combined labour productivity and supply: an empirical, multi-model study (2021)
Journal Article
Dasgupta, S., van Maanen, N., Gosling, S. N., Piontek, F., Otto, C., & Schleussner, C. F. (2021). Effects of climate change on combined labour productivity and supply: an empirical, multi-model study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(7), e455-e465. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196%2821%2900170-4

Background: Although effects on labour is one of the most tangible and attributable climate impact, our quantification of these effects is insufficient and based on weak methodologies. Partly, this gap is due to the inability to resolve different imp... Read More about Effects of climate change on combined labour productivity and supply: an empirical, multi-model study.

Understanding each other’s models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication (2021)
Journal Article
Telteu, C. E., Müller Schmied, H., Thiery, W., Leng, G., Burek, P., Liu, X., Boulange, J. E. S., Andersen, L. S., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S. N., Satoh, Y., Rakovec, O., Stacke, T., Chang, J., Wanders, N., Shah, H. L., Trautmann, T., Mao, G., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., …Herz, F. (2021). Understanding each other’s models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication. Geoscientific Model Development, 14(6), 3843-3878. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021

Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying... Read More about Understanding each other’s models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication.

Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change (2021)
Journal Article
Gudmundsson, L., Boulange, J., Do, H. X., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Leonard, M., Liu, J., Schmied, H. M., Papadimitriou, L., Pokhrel, Y., Seneviratne, S. I., Satoh, Y., Thiery, W., Westra, S., Zhang, X., & Zhao, F. (2021). Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change. Science, 371(6534), 1159-1162. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3996

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patter... Read More about Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change.

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study (2021)
Journal Article
Reinecke, R., Müller Schmied, H., Trautmann, T., Seaby Andersen, L., Burek, P., Flörke, M., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Pokhrel, Y., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Yusuke, S., & Döll, P. (2021). Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(2), 787-810. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021

Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change w... Read More about Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: A global-scale multi-model ensemble study.

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study (2021)
Journal Article
Reinecke, R., Schmied, H., Trautmann, T., Andersen, L. S., Burek, P., Flörke, M., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Pokhrel, Y., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Yusuke, S., & Döll, P. (2021). Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(2), 787-810. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021

Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change w... Read More about Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study.

International perceptions of urban blue-green infrastructure: A comparison across four cities (2021)
Journal Article
O’Donnell, E. C., Netusil, N. R., Chan, F. K. S., Dolman, N. J., & Gosling, S. N. (2021). International perceptions of urban blue-green infrastructure: A comparison across four cities. Water, 13(4), Article 544. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040544

© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Blue-Green infrastructure (BGI) is recognised internationally as an approach for managing urban water challenges while enhancing society and the environment through the provision of multiple c... Read More about International perceptions of urban blue-green infrastructure: A comparison across four cities.

Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change (2021)
Journal Article
Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke, A., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Kim, H., Koutroulis, A., Liu, J., Papadimitriou, L., Schewe, J., Müller Schmied, H., Stacke, T., Telteu, C. E., Thiery, W., …Wada, Y. (2021). Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 11(3), 226-233. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) modulates the hydrological cycle and is a key determinant of water availability and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been increasingly studied, future changes in TWS and the linkages to dro... Read More about Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change.

Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change (2021)
Journal Article
Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke, A., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Kim, H., Koutroulis, A., Liu, J., Papadimitriou, L., Schewe, J., Müller Schmied, H., Stacke, T., Telteu, C.-E., Thiery, W., …Wada, Y. (2021). Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) modulates the hydrological cycle and is a key determinant of water availability and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been increasingly studied, future changes in TWS and the linkages to dro... Read More about Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change.

Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication (2021)
Preprint / Working Paper
Telteu, C.-E., Müller Schmied, H., Thiery, W., Leng, G., Burek, P., Liu, X., Boulange, J. E. S., Seaby Andersen, L., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S. N., Satoh, Y., Rakovec, O., Stacke, T., Chang, J., Wanders, N., Shah, H. L., Trautmann, T., Mao, G., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., …Herz, F. Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication

Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle, on the global scale, and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modeling frameworks and consider different underlyin... Read More about Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication.

Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales (2020)
Journal Article
Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T., Reyer, C. P. O., Warszawski, L., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Schewe, J., Bresch, D. N., Büchner, M., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., Emanuel, K., Folberth, C., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., …Frieler, K. (2020). Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales. Earth's Future, 8(12), Article e2020EF001616. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001616

©2020. The Authors. The extent and impact of climate-related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure... Read More about Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales.

How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change (2020)
Journal Article
Krysanova, V., Zaherpour, J., Didovets, I., Gosling, S. N., Gerten, D., Hanasaki, N., Müller Schmied, H., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Tang, Q., & Wada, Y. (2020). How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change. Climatic Change, 163, 1353–1377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02840-0

© 2020, The Author(s). Importance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating o... Read More about How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change.

Using Recurrent Neural Network for Intelligent Prediction of Water Level in Reservoirs (2020)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Zhang, J., Zhang, Z., Weng, Y., Gosling, S., Yang, H., Yang, C., Li, W., & Ma, Q. (2020, January). Using Recurrent Neural Network for Intelligent Prediction of Water Level in Reservoirs. Presented at Proceedings - 2020 IEEE 44th Annual Computers, Software, and Applications Conference, COMPSAC 2020, Madrid, Spain

© 2020 IEEE. Water resources management over long term has faced a great challenge due to the increasing demands on water from a growing number of population and a huge variance of water usage in different time and place. Therefore, a new time series... Read More about Using Recurrent Neural Network for Intelligent Prediction of Water Level in Reservoirs.

Global Heat Uptake by Inland Waters (2020)
Journal Article
Vanderkelen, I., Lipzig, N. P. M., Lawrence, D. M., Droppers, B., Golub, M., Gosling, S. N., Janssen, A. B. G., Marce, R., Schmied, H. M., Perroud, M., Pierson, D., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Schewe, J., Seneviratne, S. I., Stepanenko, V. M., Tan, Z., Woolway, R. I., & Thiery, W. (2020). Global Heat Uptake by Inland Waters. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(12), Article e2020GL087867. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087867

©2020. The Authors. Heat uptake is a key variable for understanding the Earth system response to greenhouse gas forcing. Despite the importance of this heat budget, heat uptake by inland waters has so far not been quantified. Here we use a unique com... Read More about Global Heat Uptake by Inland Waters.

Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation (2020)
Journal Article
Xuan Do, H., Zhao, F., Westra, S., Leonard, M., Gudmundsson, L., Eric Stanislas Boulange, J., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Müller Schmied, H., Stacke, T., Telteu, C. E., & Wada, Y. (2020). Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24(3), 1543-1564. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020

© Author(s) 2020. To improve the understanding of trends in extreme flows related to flood events at the global scale, historical and future changes of annual maxima of 7 d streamflow are investigated, using a comprehensive streamflow archive and six... Read More about Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes (2019)
Journal Article
Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Reyer, C., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., Francois, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H. K., Seneviratne, S. I., Van Vliet, M. T., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Büchner, M., Carozza, D. A., Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., De Wit, A., …Warszawski, L. (2019). State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes. Nature Communications, 10, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically ac... Read More about State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.