Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study

Reinecke, Robert; Schmied, Hannes; Trautmann, Tim; Andersen, Lauren Seaby; Burek, Peter; Fl�rke, Martina; Gosling, Simon N; Grillakis, Manolis; Hanasaki, Naota; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Pokhrel, Yadu; Thiery, Wim; Wada, Yoshihide; Yusuke, Satoh; D�ll, Petra

Abstract

Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability , but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among

Citation

Reinecke, R., Schmied, H., Trautmann, T., Andersen, L. S., Burek, P., Flörke, M., …Döll, P. (2021). Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(2), 787-810. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 19, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Feb 19, 2021
• Publication Date: Feb 19, 2021
• Deposit Date: Feb 19, 2021
• Publicly Available Date: Mar 1, 2021
• Journal: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
• Print ISSN: 1027-5606
• Publisher: European Geosciences Union
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 25
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 787-810
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/5334377
• Publisher URL: https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/25/787/2021/