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Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations

Boulange, Julien; Hanasaki, Naota; Satoh, Yusuke; Yokohata, Tokuta; Shiogama, Hideo; Burek, Peter; Thiery, Wim; Gerten, Dieter; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Wada, Yoshihide; Gosling, Simon N.; Pokhrel, Yadu; Wanders, Niko

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Authors

Julien Boulange

Naota Hanasaki

Yusuke Satoh

Tokuta Yokohata

Hideo Shiogama

Peter Burek

Wim Thiery

Dieter Gerten

Hannes Müller Schmied

Yoshihide Wada

Dr SIMON GOSLING SIMON.GOSLING@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
Professor of Climate Risks and Environmental Modelling

Yadu Pokhrel

Niko Wanders



Abstract

Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient climate in comparison with the equilibrium climate. Therefore, it is unclear whether floods and droughts projected under a transient climate can be systematically substituted for those occurring in an equilibrated climate. Here, by employing a large ensemble of global hydrological models (HMs) forced by global climate models, we assess the validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. Differences in flood characteristics under transient and equilibrium climates could be largely ascribed to natural variability, indicating that the floods derived from a transient climate reasonably approximate the floods expected in an equally warm, equilibrated climate. By contrast, significant differences in drought intensity between transient and equilibrium climates were detected over a larger global land area than expected from natural variability. Despite the large differences among HMs in representing the low streamflow regime, we found that the drought intensities occurring under a transient climate may not validly represent the intensities in an equally warm equilibrated climate for approximately 6.7% of the global land area.

Citation

Boulange, J., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Yokohata, T., Shiogama, H., Burek, P., …Wanders, N. (2021). Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. Environmental Research Letters, 16(10), Article 104028. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Sep 17, 2021
Online Publication Date Sep 17, 2021
Publication Date Oct 1, 2021
Deposit Date Sep 23, 2021
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal Environmental Research Letters
Electronic ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher IOP Publishing
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 16
Issue 10
Article Number 104028
DOI https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc
Keywords Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health; General Environmental Science; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/6296664
Publisher URL https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc

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