All Outputs (4)

The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity (2023)
Journal Article
Ball, F., Critcher, L., Neal, P., & Sirl, D. (2023). The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 87(6), Article 83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-02010-7

The disease-induced herd immunity level hD is the fraction of the population that must be infected by an epidemic to ensure that a new epidemic among the remaining susceptible population is not supercritical. For a homogeneously mixing population hD... Read More about The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity.

Strong convergence of an epidemic model with mixing groups (2023)
Journal Article
Ball, F., & Neal, P. (2024). Strong convergence of an epidemic model with mixing groups. Advances in Applied Probability, 56(2), 430-463. https://doi.org/10.1017/apr.2023.29

We consider an SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemic in a closed population of size n, in which infection spreads via mixing events, comprising individuals chosen uniformly at random from the population, which occur at the points of a Po... Read More about Strong convergence of an epidemic model with mixing groups.

Asymptotic persistence time formulae for multitype birth-death processes (2023)
Journal Article
Ball, F. G., & Clancy, D. (2023). Asymptotic persistence time formulae for multitype birth-death processes. Journal of Applied Probability, 60(3), 895-920. https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2022.102

We consider a class of processes describing a population consisting of k types of individuals. The process is almost surely absorbed at the origin within finite time, and we study the expected time taken for such extinction to occur. We derive simple... Read More about Asymptotic persistence time formulae for multitype birth-death processes.

The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data (2023)
Journal Article
Ball, F., & Neal, P. (2023). The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data. Advances in Applied Probability, 55(3), 895-926. https://doi.org/10.1017/apr.2022.58

During an epidemic outbreak, typically only partial information about the outbreak is known. A common scenario is that the infection times of individuals are unknown, but individuals, on displaying symptoms, are identified as infectious and removed f... Read More about The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data.