The deterministic Kermack?McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic
(2016)
Journal Article
Wilkinson, R. R., Ball, F. G., & Sharkey, K. J. (2016). The deterministic Kermack?McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic. Journal of Applied Probability, 53(4), 1031-1040. https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2016.62
We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected number of s... Read More about The deterministic Kermack?McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic.