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The Ball That Failed to Curve: The 2023 “Populist Polarizing” Referendum in Poland (2025)
Journal Article
Musiał-Karg, M., & Casal Bértoa, F. (2025). The Ball That Failed to Curve: The 2023 “Populist Polarizing” Referendum in Poland. Politics and Governance, 13, Article 9206. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.9206

In October 2023, Poland’s illiberal right-wing government held a referendum modeled after the one held in Hungary one year earlier. Organized in conjunction with the parliamentary elections under the pretext of “saving costs,” the 2023 Polish referen... Read More about The Ball That Failed to Curve: The 2023 “Populist Polarizing” Referendum in Poland.

GulliMair Travels East: Drivers of Party System Institutionalization in Asia in Comparative Perspective (2024)
Journal Article
Lee, D. S., Casal Bértoa, F., & Adeney, K. (2024). GulliMair Travels East: Drivers of Party System Institutionalization in Asia in Comparative Perspective. Political Research Exchange, 6(1), Article 2413525. https://doi.org/10.1080/2474736X.2024.2413525

In this article, we apply Mair’s concept of ‘party system closure’ to Asian party systems, with particular comparison with his native continent, Europe. Building on Mair’s (Citation2001) conceptualization and Casal Bértoa and Enyedi’s (Citation2021)... Read More about GulliMair Travels East: Drivers of Party System Institutionalization in Asia in Comparative Perspective.

Presidential Elections and European Party Systems (1848–2020) (2024)
Journal Article
Casal Bértoa, F., & Weber, T. (2024). Presidential Elections and European Party Systems (1848–2020). British Journal of Political Science, 54(3), 874-891. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123423000704

Political scientists have long been concerned that a popularly elected presidency may destabilize competitive party systems. We develop and test a new theory holding that the impact is more immediate and severe than previously assumed. Coexisting leg... Read More about Presidential Elections and European Party Systems (1848–2020).

Party and Party System Institutionalization: Which Comes First? (2023)
Journal Article
Casal Bértoa, F., Enyedi, Z., & Mölder, M. (2023). Party and Party System Institutionalization: Which Comes First?. Perspectives on Politics, 22(1), 194-212. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1537592723002530

Parties and party systems are treated as separate phenomena in theory, but not in research practice. This is most clearly so in the literature on the institutionalization of party politics, where the party level and the systemic levels are often anal... Read More about Party and Party System Institutionalization: Which Comes First?.

On the causes of electoral volatility in Asia since 1948 (2021)
Journal Article
Lee, D. S., & Casal Bertoa, F. (2021). On the causes of electoral volatility in Asia since 1948. Party Politics, 28(6), 1187–1199. https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688211046858

Electoral stability has been viewed as an essential condition for the healthy functioning of representative democracy. However, there is little agreement in the literature about what shapes the stability of the electorate in general nor much attentio... Read More about On the causes of electoral volatility in Asia since 1948.

Paying for appeasement: On the moderating role of public subsidies in East Central European party politics (2021)
Journal Article
Casal Bertoa, F., & Rama, J. (2022). Paying for appeasement: On the moderating role of public subsidies in East Central European party politics. Party Politics, 28(4), 611-624. https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688211015933

Focusing on the relationship between the access of political parties to direct public funding and electoral support for anti-political-establishment (e.g. populist, extremist) parties (APEp), this article tries to fill an important gap in the literat... Read More about Paying for appeasement: On the moderating role of public subsidies in East Central European party politics.

Restrained change: party systems in times of economic crisis (2018)
Journal Article
Casal Bértoa, F., & Weber, T. (2019). Restrained change: party systems in times of economic crisis. Journal of Politics, 81(1), 233-245. https://doi.org/10.1086/700202

The recent global financial crisis has been a serious stress test for representative democracies. Voter support has supposedly become more volatile, fragmented, and polarized, leaving elites with an intricate mix of economic and political challenges.... Read More about Restrained change: party systems in times of economic crisis.

The volatility of volatility: Measuring change in party vote shares (2017)
Journal Article
Casal Bertoa, F., Deegan-Krause, K., & Haughton, T. (2017). The volatility of volatility: Measuring change in party vote shares. Electoral Studies, 50, 142-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.007

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd Volatility is a widely used term in political science, but even the most widely used measure of volatility, Pedersen's index, can mask as much as it reveals. His simple and elegant calculation has become part of the political scie... Read More about The volatility of volatility: Measuring change in party vote shares.

Parties between thresholds: State subsidies and party behaviour in post-communist democracies (2017)
Journal Article
Casal Bertoa, F., & Spirova, M. (2019). Parties between thresholds: State subsidies and party behaviour in post-communist democracies. Party Politics, 25(2), 233-244. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068817710221

Much has been written about what makes political parties form, persist, change and die. One factor often brought into this discussion is the availability of resources in general and of state financing of political parties in particular. However, an e... Read More about Parties between thresholds: State subsidies and party behaviour in post-communist democracies.

Prescribing democracy? Party proscription and party system stability in Germany, Spain and Turkey (2016)
Journal Article
Casal Bertoa, F., & Bourne, A. (2017). Prescribing democracy? Party proscription and party system stability in Germany, Spain and Turkey. European Journal of Political Research, 56(2), 440-465. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12179

© 2016 European Consortium for Political Research When democracies ban political parties, one of the central issues that usually emerges in both public and academic debate concerns the effects of proscription. Some argue that proscription may lead to... Read More about Prescribing democracy? Party proscription and party system stability in Germany, Spain and Turkey.

Political parties or party systems? Assessing the ‘myth’ of institutionalisation and democracy (2016)
Journal Article
Casal Bértoa, F. (2017). Political parties or party systems? Assessing the ‘myth’ of institutionalisation and democracy. West European Politics, 40(2), 402-429. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2016.1216921

No matter the region of the world under study, party (system) institutionalisation has been traditionally considered to be a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the survival of democracy. Despite being one of the most quoted statements in th... Read More about Political parties or party systems? Assessing the ‘myth’ of institutionalisation and democracy.

It’s Been Mostly About Money! A Multi-method Research Approach to the Sources of Institutionalization (2015)
Journal Article
Casal Bértoa, F. (2017). It’s Been Mostly About Money! A Multi-method Research Approach to the Sources of Institutionalization. Sociological Methods and Research, 46(4), 683-714. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124115588998

Although much has been written about the process of party system insti- tutionalization in different regions, the reasons why some party systems institutionalize while others do not still remain a mystery. Seeking to fill this lacuna in the literatur... Read More about It’s Been Mostly About Money! A Multi-method Research Approach to the Sources of Institutionalization.

Party system closure and openness: Conceptualization, operationalization and validation (2014)
Journal Article
Casal Bertoa, F., & Enyedi, Z. (2016). Party system closure and openness: Conceptualization, operationalization and validation. Party Politics, 22(3), 265-277. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068814549340

The degree of closure of the governmental arena is a central aspect of the stabilization of party systems, and yet little systematic effort has been devoted to its operationalization. The article proposes a new index, examines its reliability and val... Read More about Party system closure and openness: Conceptualization, operationalization and validation.