Probabilistic analysis of a coal mine roadway including correlation control between model input parameters

Booth, Andrew J.; Marshall, Alec M.; Stace, Rod

Abstract

Probabilistic analysis and numerical modelling techniques have been combined to analyse a deep coal mine roadway. Using the Monte Carlo method, a correlation control algorithm and a FLAC 2D finite difference model, a probability distribution of roof displacements has been calculated and compared to a set of measurements from an actual mine roadway. The importance of correlation between input parameters is also considered. The results show that the analysis performs relatively well, but does tend to over predict the magnitude of displacements. Correlation between parameters is shown to be very important, particularly between the three model stresses.

Citation

Booth, A. J., Marshall, A. M., & Stace, R. (2016). Probabilistic analysis of a coal mine roadway including correlation control between model input parameters. Computers and Geotechnics, 74, 151-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2016.01.008

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 14, 2016
• Online Publication Date: Feb 4, 2016
• Publication Date: 2016-04
• Deposit Date: Jul 13, 2016
• Publicly Available Date: Jul 13, 2016
• Journal: Computers and Geotechnics
• Print ISSN: 0266-352X
• Electronic ISSN: 1873-7633
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 74
• Pages: 151-162
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2016.01.008
• Keywords: Coal mine, correlation control, Latin hypercube, Monte Carlo, Probabilistic, Uncertainty analysis
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/977242
• Publisher URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0266352X16000173
• Contract Date: Jul 13, 2016