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Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014

Su�rez-Medina, Ramon; Venero-Fern�ndez, Silvia Josefina; Britton, John; Fogarty, Andrew W.

Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014 Thumbnail


Authors

Ramon Su�rez-Medina

Silvia Josefina Venero-Fern�ndez

John Britton

ANDREW FOGARTY ANDREW.FOGARTY@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
Clinical Associate Professor & Reader in Clinical Epidemiology



Abstract

Background

The increase in prevalence of obesity is a possible risk factor for asthma in developed countries. As the people of Cuba experienced an acute population-based decrease in weight in the 1990s, we tested the hypothesis that national weight loss and subsequent weight gain was associated a reciprocal changes in asthma mortality.
Methods

Data were obtained on mortality rates from asthma and COPD in Cuba from 1964 to 2014, along with data on prevalence of obesity for this period. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify inflexion points in the data.
Results

Although the prevalence of obesity from 1990 to 1995 decreased from 14% to 7%, over the same time period the rate of asthma mortality increased from 4.5 deaths per 100,000 population to 5.4 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2010, the obesity prevalence subsequently increased to 15% in 2010, while the asthma mortality rate dropped to 2.3 deaths per 100,000 population. The optimal model for fit of asthma mortality over time gave an increasing linear association from 1964 to 1995 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1993 to 1997), followed by a decrease in asthma mortality rates from 1995 to 1999 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1997 to 2002).
Conclusions

These national data do not support the hypothesis that population-based changes in weight are associated with asthma mortality. Other possible explanations for the large decreases in asthma mortality rates include changes in pollution or better delivery of medical care over the same time period.

Citation

Suárez-Medina, R., Venero-Fernández, S. J., Britton, J., & Fogarty, A. W. (2016). Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014. Respiratory Medicine, 118, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2016.07.003

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jul 5, 2016
Online Publication Date Jul 9, 2016
Publication Date Sep 1, 2016
Deposit Date Aug 4, 2016
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal Respiratory Medicine
Print ISSN 0954-6111
Electronic ISSN 1532-3064
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 118
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2016.07.003
Keywords Cuba; Asthma; Mortality; Obesity
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/975296
Publisher URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954611116301500

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