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A Bayesian Assessment of an Approximate Model for Unconfined Water Flow in Sloping Layered Porous Media

Chiachío, Juan; Chiachío, Manuel; Sankararaman, Shankar; Prescott, Darren

Authors

Juan Chiachío

Manuel Chiachío

Shankar Sankararaman



Abstract

© 2018, The Author(s). The prediction of water table height in unconfined layered porous media is a difficult modelling problem that typically requires numerical simulation.This paper proposes an analytical model to approximate the exact solution based on a steady-state Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis.The key contribution in relation to a similar model in the literature relies in the ability of the proposed model to consider more than two layers with different thicknesses and slopes, so that the existing model becomes a special case of the proposed model herein.In addition, a model assessment methodology based on the Bayesian inverse problem is proposed to efficiently identify the values of the physical parameters for which the proposed model is accurate when compared against a reference model given by MODFLOW-NWT, the open-source finite-difference code by the U.S. Geological Survey.Based on numerical results for a representative case study, the ratio of vertical recharge rate to hydraulic conductivity emerges as a key parameter in terms of model accuracy so that, when appropriately bounded, both the proposed model and MODFLOW-NWT provide almost identical results.

Citation

Chiachío, J., Chiachío, M., Sankararaman, S., & Prescott, D. (2019). A Bayesian Assessment of an Approximate Model for Unconfined Water Flow in Sloping Layered Porous Media. Transport in Porous Media, 126(1), 177-197. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11242-018-1094-2

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 24, 2018
Online Publication Date Jun 9, 2018
Publication Date Jan 15, 2019
Deposit Date Jun 19, 2018
Publicly Available Date Jun 19, 2018
Journal Transport in Porous Media
Print ISSN 0169-3913
Electronic ISSN 1573-1634
Publisher Springer Verlag
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 126
Issue 1
Pages 177-197
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s11242-018-1094-2
Keywords Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis; Layered porous media; Bayesian hypothesis testing; Railway track drainage; General Chemical Engineering; Catalysis
Public URL http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/52480
Publisher URL https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11242-018-1094-2
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Additional Information Received: 30 November 2017; Accepted: 24 May 2018; First Online: 9 June 2018

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Water final 10.1007_s11242-018-1094-2.pdf (1.1 Mb)
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Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0


Water final 10.1007_s11242-018-1094-2.pdf (1.2 Mb)
PDF

Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0





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