Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki smallpox data

Stockdale, Jessica E.; Kypraios, Theodore; O’Neill, Philip D.

Authors

Jessica E. Stockdale

Philip D. O’Neill



Abstract

The celebrated Abakaliki smallpox data have appeared numerous times in the epidemic modelling literature, but in almost all cases only a specific subset of the data is considered. The only previous analysis of the full data set relied on approximation methods to derive a likelihood and did not assess model adequacy. The data themselves continue to be of interest due to concerns about the possible re-emergence of smallpox as a bioterrorism weapon. We present the first full Bayesian statistical analysis using data-augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods which avoid the need for likelihood approximations and which yield a wider range of results than previous analyses. We also carry out model assessment using simulation-based methods. Our findings suggest that the outbreak was largely driven by the interaction structure of the population, and that the introduction of control measures was not the sole reason for the end of the epidemic. We also obtain quantitative estimates of key quantities including reproduction numbers.

Citation

Stockdale, J. E., Kypraios, T., & O’Neill, P. D. (2017). Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki smallpox data. Epidemics, 19, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.005

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Nov 7, 2016
Online Publication Date Dec 9, 2016
Publication Date Jun 15, 2017
Deposit Date Jan 17, 2017
Publicly Available Date Jan 17, 2017
Journal Epidemics
Print ISSN 1755-4365
Electronic ISSN 1878-0067
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 19
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.005
Keywords Smallpox; Bayesian inference; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Stochastic epidemic model; Abakaliki
Public URL http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/39887
Publisher URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436516300500?via%3Dihub
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Files


smallpox 1-s2.0-S1755436516300500-main.pdf (4.7 Mb)
PDF

Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0


Smallpox Supplementary material2.pdf (217 Kb)
PDF

Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0





You might also like



Downloadable Citations