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Quantitative risk prognostics framework based on Petri Net and Bow-Tie models

Vileiniskis, Marius; Remenyte-Prescott, Rasa

Authors

Marius Vileiniskis



Abstract

A simulation framework based on the Petri Net model is proposed in this paper used for performing quantitative risk prognosis through extending the Bow-Tie model. A Petri Net model is built to include features, specific to assets, such as the condition of the asset, the projected operational usage, inspection and maintenance policies and degradation process, so that the future condition of the asset over time can be estimated. Several new Petri Net modelling features which advance the traditional Bow-Tie approach are proposed, such as asset usage generating and usage dependent transitions, and the possibility of entering evidence about the actual condition of the asset through the use of truncated distributions. Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the developed Petri Net model over a selected time frame, in order to obtain statistics necessary to perform risk assessment using the Bow-Tie model. The paper reports on the overall proposed methodology and then focusses on the development of the Petri Net model. The methodology is applied in risk prognostics of operating an underground passenger lift. In particular, the combination of the Petri Net and the Bow-Tie models is illustrated to predict the likelihood and the consequences of an event when a lift gets stuck in a shaft between landings.

Citation

Vileiniskis, M., & Remenyte-Prescott, R. (2017). Quantitative risk prognostics framework based on Petri Net and Bow-Tie models. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 165, 62-73. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2017.03.026

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Mar 22, 2017
Online Publication Date Mar 23, 2017
Publication Date 2017-09
Deposit Date Mar 24, 2017
Publicly Available Date Mar 24, 2019
Journal Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Electronic ISSN 0951-8320
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 165
Pages 62-73
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.03.026
Keywords Petri Net; Bow-Tie model; Fault tree; Event tree; risk; asset management; prognostics
Public URL http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/41560
Publisher URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832016305026
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0

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Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0





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