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Development and validation of risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in postpartum women: multinational cohort study

Sultan, Alyshah Abdul; West, Joe; Grainge, Matthew J.; Riley, Richard D.; Tata, Laila J.; Stephansson, Olof; Fleming, Kate M.; Nelson-Piercy, Catherine; Ludvigsson, Jonas F.

Development and validation of risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in postpartum women: multinational cohort study Thumbnail


Alyshah Abdul Sultan

Professor of Epidemiology

Richard D. Riley

Laila J. Tata

Olof Stephansson

Kate M. Fleming

Catherine Nelson-Piercy

Jonas F. Ludvigsson


Objective: To develop and validate a risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in the first six weeks after delivery (early postpartum).

Design: Cohort study.

Setting: Records from England based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and data from Sweden based registry.

Participants: All pregnant women registered with CPRD-HES linked data between 1997 and 2014 and Swedish medical birth registry between 2005 and 2011 with postpartum follow-up.

Main outcome measure: Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop a risk prediction model for postpartum venous thromboembolism based on the English data, which was externally validated in the Swedish data.

Results: 433 353 deliveries were identified in the English cohort and 662 387 in the Swedish cohort. The absolute rate of venous thromboembolism was 7.2 per 10 000 deliveries in the English cohort and 7.9 per 10 000 in the Swedish cohort. Emergency caesarean delivery, stillbirth, varicose veins, pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, postpartum infection, and comorbidities were the strongest predictors of venous thromboembolism in the final multivariable model. Discrimination of the model was similar in both cohorts, with a C statistic above 0.70, with excellent calibration of observed and predicted risks. The model identified more venous thromboembolism events than the existing national English (sensitivity 68% v 63%) and Swedish guidelines (30% v 21%) at similar thresholds.

Conclusion: A new prediction model that quantifies absolute risk of postpartum venous thromboembolism has been developed and externally validated. It is based on clinical variables that are available in many developed countries at the point of delivery and could serve as the basis for real time decisions on obstetric thromboprophylaxis.%U

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Nov 11, 2016
Publication Date Dec 5, 2016
Deposit Date Dec 7, 2016
Publicly Available Date Dec 7, 2016
Journal BMJ
Print ISSN 0959-8138
Electronic ISSN 1756-1833
Publisher BMJ Publishing Group
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 355
Issue i6253
Public URL
Publisher URL


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