Sally R. Wilkes
Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum?
Wilkes, Sally R.; Williams, Hywel C.; Ormerod, Anthony D.; Craig, Fiona E.; Greenlaw, Nicola; Norrie, John; Mitchell, Eleanor; Mason, James M.; Thomas, Kim S.
HYWEL WILLIAMS firstname.lastname@example.org
Professor of Dermato-Epidemiology
Anthony D. Ormerod
Fiona E. Craig
ELEANOR MITCHELL ELEANOR.MITCHELL@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
James M. Mason
Professor KIM THOMAS KIM.THOMAS@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
Professor of Applied Dermatology Research
Background: Pyoderma gangrenosum is a rare inflammatory skin condition. The STOPGAP studies compared treatments for pyoderma gangrenosum using a primary outcome of healing speed at 6 weeks.
Objective: Using data from both studies we assessed the predictive value of three early predictors for healing at 6 months - speed of healing, Investigator Global Assessment and resolution of inflammation, recorded at 2 and 6 weeks.
Methods: Logistic regression models were applied and the effectiveness of the three measures was assessed through estimating the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Results: The PPV and NPV at 6 weeks were 63.5% (95% CI:52.4%, 73.7%) and 74.6% (95% CI:62.5%, 84.5%) respectively for speed of healing; 80% (95% CI:68.7%, 88.6%) and 74.2% (95% CI:64.1%, 2.7%) for IGA; and 72.1% (95% CI:59.9%, 82.3%) and 68.1% (95% CI:57.7%, 77.3%) for resolution of inflammation. Investigator Global Assessment had the best combined PPV, NPV and AUC at 2 and 6 weeks.
Limitations: We were limited by data available from the STOP GAP trial and cohort study.
Conclusion: Speed of healing, Investigator Global Assessment and resolution of inflammation were all shown to be good predictors of eventual healing.
Wilkes, S. R., Williams, H. C., Ormerod, A. D., Craig, F. E., Greenlaw, N., Norrie, J., …Thomas, K. S. (2016). Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum?. Journal of The American Academy of Dermatology, 75(6), 1216-1220.e2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaad.2016.07.049
|Journal Article Type||Article|
|Acceptance Date||Jul 25, 2016|
|Online Publication Date||Oct 11, 2016|
|Deposit Date||Jul 28, 2016|
|Publicly Available Date||Oct 11, 2016|
|Journal||Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology|
|Peer Reviewed||Peer Reviewed|
|Keywords||Pyoderma Gangrenosum, Speed of Healing, Lesion Improvement, Resolution of Inflammation, Predictors, Clinical Trials, Clinical Practice|
Mediated Deposit Request -Date of acceptance 25 07 2016 (002).pdf
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
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