Extended Bow-Tie model for asset risk and reliability modeling: application to a passenger lift

Vileiniskis, Marius; Remenyte-Prescott, Rasa

Abstract

A risk and reliability modelling framework for railway assets based on the Petri Net and the Bow-Tie models is proposed in this paper. A Petri Net model together with the Monte Carlo simulation is used to replicate the projected operational usage of the asset, inspection and maintenance policies and degra-dation of the asset and to estimate the future condition of the asset over time. Statistics obtained from the Petri Net are used as inputs to the Bow-Tie model, which is then used to estimate the risk of a hazardous event. The paper reports on the proposed methodology and the results of a case study of an underground passenger lift. In particular, the likelihood and the consequences of a lift getting stuck in shaft between landings are calculated.

Citation

Vileiniskis, M., & Remenyte-Prescott, R. Extended Bow-Tie model for asset risk and reliability modeling: application to a passenger lift. Presented at ESREL 2016

• Conference Name: ESREL 2016
• End Date: Sep 29, 2016
• Acceptance Date: Jun 13, 2016
• Publication Date: Sep 26, 2016
• Deposit Date: Jun 30, 2016
• Publicly Available Date: Sep 26, 2016
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/809480
• Related Public URLs: http://esrel2016.org/
• Contract Date: Jun 30, 2016