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Extended Bow-Tie model for asset risk and reliability modeling: application to a passenger lift

Vileiniskis, Marius; Remenyte-Prescott, Rasa

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Authors

Marius Vileiniskis



Abstract

A risk and reliability modelling framework for railway assets based on the Petri Net and the Bow-Tie models is proposed in this paper. A Petri Net model together with the Monte Carlo simulation is used to replicate the projected operational usage of the asset, inspection and maintenance policies and degra-dation of the asset and to estimate the future condition of the asset over time. Statistics obtained from the Petri Net are used as inputs to the Bow-Tie model, which is then used to estimate the risk of a hazardous event. The paper reports on the proposed methodology and the results of a case study of an underground passenger lift. In particular, the likelihood and the consequences of a lift getting stuck in shaft between landings are calculated.

Conference Name ESREL 2016
End Date Sep 29, 2016
Acceptance Date Jun 13, 2016
Publication Date Sep 26, 2016
Deposit Date Jun 30, 2016
Publicly Available Date Sep 26, 2016
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/809480
Related Public URLs http://esrel2016.org/

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