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Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments

Kumar, Amit; Gosling, Simon N.; Johnson, Matthew F.; Jones, Matthew D.; Zaherpour, Jamal; Kumar, Rohini; Leng, Guoyong; Schmied, Hannes Müller; Kupzig, Jenny; Breuer, Lutz; Hanasaki, Naota; Tang, Qiuhong; Ostberg, Sebastian; Stacke, Tobias; Pokhrel, Yadu; Wada, Yoshihide; Masaki, Yoshimitsu

Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments Thumbnail


Authors

Amit Kumar

Dr SIMON GOSLING SIMON.GOSLING@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
Professor of Climate Risks and Environmental Modelling

MATTHEW JONES MATTHEW.JONES@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
Professor of Quaternary Science

Jamal Zaherpour

Rohini Kumar

Guoyong Leng

Hannes Müller Schmied

Jenny Kupzig

Lutz Breuer

Naota Hanasaki

Qiuhong Tang

Sebastian Ostberg

Tobias Stacke

Yadu Pokhrel

Yoshihide Wada

Yoshimitsu Masaki



Abstract

Although global- and catchment-scale hydrological models are often shown to accurately simulate long-term runoff time-series, far less is known about their suitability for capturing hydrological extremes, such as droughts. Here we evaluated simulations of hydrological droughts from nine catchment scale hydrological models (CHMs) and eight global scale hydrological models (GHMs) for eight large catchments: Upper Amazon, Lena, Upper Mississippi, Upper Niger, Rhine, Tagus, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The simulations were conducted within the framework of phase 2a of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We evaluated the ability of the CHMs, GHMs and their respective ensemble means (Ens-CHM and Ens-GHM) to simulate observed hydrological droughts of at least one month duration, over 31 years (1971–2001). Hydrological drought events were identified from runoff-deficits and the Standardised Runoff Index (SRI). In all catchments, the CHMs performed relatively better than the GHMs, for simulating monthly runoff-deficits. The number of drought events identified under different drought categories (i.e. SRI values of -1 to -1.49, -1.5 to -1.99, and ≤-2) varied significantly between models. All the models, as well as the two ensemble means, have limited abilities to accurately simulate drought events in all eight catchments, in terms of their occurrence and magnitude. Overall, there are opportunities to improve both CHMs and GHMs for better characterisation of hydrological droughts.

Citation

Kumar, A., Gosling, S. N., Johnson, M. F., Jones, M. D., Zaherpour, J., Kumar, R., …Masaki, Y. (2022). Multi-model evaluation of catchment- and global-scale hydrological model simulations of drought characteristics across eight large river catchments. Advances in Water Resources, 165, Article 104212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104212

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Apr 18, 2022
Online Publication Date Apr 21, 2022
Publication Date 2022-07
Deposit Date May 20, 2022
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal Advances in Water Resources
Print ISSN 0309-1708
Publisher Elsevier BV
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 165
Article Number 104212
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104212
Keywords Water Science and Technology
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/7787494
Publisher URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170822000847?via%3Dihub

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