Examining the links between conspiracy beliefs and the EU “Brexit” referendum vote in the UK: Evidence from a two-wave survey

Jolley, Daniel; Douglas, Karen M.; Marchlewska, Marta; Cichocka, Aleksandra; Sutton, Robbie M.

Abstract

This research examined the link between conspiracy beliefs and political decisions in the context of the 2016 European Union referendum in the United Kingdom. In a longitudinal study, we surveyed British participants at two-time points (one week before the referendum vs. immediately after the referendum). At both time points, participants (n=334) indicated their belief in conspiracy theories specific to the referendum, their general tendencies toward conspiracy theorizing, their political orientation, and support for leaving the EU, followed by how they voted in the referendum, taken at Time 2. Using cross-lagged path analysis, we found that conspiracy beliefs specific to the referendum predicted both support for leaving the EU, and voting to leave the EU, above and beyond political orientation. We also found that the general tendency toward conspiracy theorizing predicted belief in conspiracy theories relevant to the referendum, which subsequently led to increased support for leaving the EU. The chief novelty of this research lies in its longitudinal design, allowing us to conclude that conspiracy beliefs precede political behaviors in a temporal sequence.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Aug 18, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Sep 9, 2021
• Publication Date: Jan 10, 2022
• Deposit Date: Mar 10, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Sep 10, 2022
• Journal: Journal of Applied Social Psychology
• Print ISSN: 0021-9029
• Electronic ISSN: 1559-1816
• Publisher: Wiley
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 52
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 30-36
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jasp.12829
• Keywords: Social Psychology
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/7505309
• Publisher URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ftr/10.1111/jasp.12829
• Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Jolley, D., Douglas, K. M., Marchlewska, M., Cichocka, A., & Sutton, R. M. (2022). Examining the links between conspiracy beliefs and the EU “Brexit” referendum vote in the UK: Evidence from a two-wave survey. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 52, 30– 36, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/jasp.12829. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.