Outputs (662)

The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data (2025)
Journal Article
Bartelme, D., Costinot, A., Donaldson, D., & Rodríguez-Clare, A. (2025). The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data. Journal of Political Economy, https://doi.org/10.1086/734129

The textbook case for industrial policy is well understood. If some sectors are subject to external economies of scale, whereas others are not, a government should subsidize the first group of sectors at the expense of the second. Little is known, ho... Read More about The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data.

Unit Root Tests for Explosive Financial Bubbles in the Presence of Deterministic Level Shifts (2025)
Journal Article
Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., Tatlow, B. S., & Zu, Y. (2025). Unit Root Tests for Explosive Financial Bubbles in the Presence of Deterministic Level Shifts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12668

This paper considers the issue of testing for an explosive bubble in financial time series in the presence of deterministic level shifts. We demonstrate that the sign-based variants of the Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015) test, proposed by Harvey, Leybou... Read More about Unit Root Tests for Explosive Financial Bubbles in the Presence of Deterministic Level Shifts.

Import processing and trade costs (2025)
Journal Article
Carballo, J., Graziano, A. G., Schaur, G., & Martincus, C. V. (2025). Import processing and trade costs. Journal of International Economics, 154, Article 104060. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104060

We estimate import processing costs based on the time it takes to import. To do so, we first develop a theoretical model that extends existing time-cost measures to account for uncertainty in import processing. Second, we use detailed, highly disaggr... Read More about Import processing and trade costs.

Did the Bank of England’s Quantitative Easing Programme Become Fiscally Wasteful? (2025)
Journal Article
Bleaney, M. (2025). Did the Bank of England’s Quantitative Easing Programme Become Fiscally Wasteful?. Open Economies Review, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-025-09798-5

In the period of central bank independence since 1997, the level of UK nominal interest rates has been driven almost entirely by real rates as reflected in the market for index-linked government bonds. These bonds offered a yield of + 4% in the 1980s... Read More about Did the Bank of England’s Quantitative Easing Programme Become Fiscally Wasteful?.

The contractual dispute resolution game: Real-effort experiments on contract negotiation and arbitration (2025)
Journal Article
Corgnet, B., Gächter, S., & Hernán-González, R. (2025). The contractual dispute resolution game: Real-effort experiments on contract negotiation and arbitration. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 231, Article 106902. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106902

In many contractual arrangements where product or service delivery occurs sometime after contracts have been concluded, conditions may change, leading to disputes that need to be resolved often by a third party (arbitrator/mediator). In this paper we... Read More about The contractual dispute resolution game: Real-effort experiments on contract negotiation and arbitration.

The Franchise, Policing, and Race: Evidence from Arrests Data and the Voting Rights Act (2025)
Journal Article
Facchini, G., Knight, B., & Testa, C. (in press). The Franchise, Policing, and Race: Evidence from Arrests Data and the Voting Rights Act. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics,

This paper investigates the relationship between the franchise and law enforcement practices using differential exposure to the Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965. We find that, following the VRA, black arrest rates in counties that both had larger shar... Read More about The Franchise, Policing, and Race: Evidence from Arrests Data and the Voting Rights Act.

Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance (2025)
Journal Article
Cruces, G., Tortarolo, D., & Vazquez-Bare, G. (2025). Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance. Review of Economics and Statistics, https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01552

We develop a framework to analyze partial population experiments, a generalization of the cluster experimental design where clusters are assigned to different treatment intensities. Our framework allows for heterogeneity in cluster sizes and outcome... Read More about Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance.

Real-time monitoring procedures for early detection of bubbles (2025)
Journal Article
Whitehouse, E., Harvey, D., & Leybourne, S. (2025). Real-time monitoring procedures for early detection of bubbles. International Journal of Forecasting, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.12.005

Asset price bubbles and crashes can have severe consequences for the stability of financial and economic systems. Policymakers require timely identification of such bubbles in order to respond to their emergence. In this paper we propose new economet... Read More about Real-time monitoring procedures for early detection of bubbles.

Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act (2025)
Journal Article
Bernini, A., Facchini, G., Tabellini, M., & Testa, C. (in press). Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act. Journal of Political Economy,

How did southern whites respond to the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA)? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation in exposure to the federal intervention, we... Read More about Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act.

Round Number Preferences and Left-Digit Bias: Evidence from Credit Card Repayments (2025)
Journal Article
Sakaguchi, H., Gathergood, J., & Stewart, N. (in press). Round Number Preferences and Left-Digit Bias: Evidence from Credit Card Repayments. Management Science,

We examine round number preferences and left-digit bias in credit card repayments. We show half of all manual credit card payments are at a small set of round-number values, although all values between the statement minimum and balance were permissib... Read More about Round Number Preferences and Left-Digit Bias: Evidence from Credit Card Repayments.