Outputs (653)

Real-Time Monitoring Procedures for Early Detection of Bubbles (2024)
Journal Article
Whitehouse, E., Harvey, D., & Leybourne, S. (in press). Real-Time Monitoring Procedures for Early Detection of Bubbles. International Journal of Forecasting,

Asset price bubbles and crashes can have severe consequences for the stability of financial and economic systems. Policy-makers require timely identification of such bubbles in order to respond to their emergence. In this paper we propose new econome... Read More about Real-Time Monitoring Procedures for Early Detection of Bubbles.

Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance (2024)
Journal Article
Cruces, G., Tortarolo, D., & Vazquez-Bare, G. (in press). Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance. Review of Economics and Statistics,

We develop a framework to analyze partial population experiments, a generalization of the cluster experimental design where clusters are assigned to different treatment intensities. Our framework allows for heterogeneity in cluster sizes and outcome... Read More about Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance.

Testing for Equal Average Forecast Accuracy in Possibly Unstable Environments (2024)
Journal Article
Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., & Zu, Y. (2024). Testing for Equal Average Forecast Accuracy in Possibly Unstable Environments. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2024.2418835

We consider the issue of testing the null of equal average forecast accuracy in a model where the forecast error loss differential series has a potentially non-constant mean function over time. We show that when time variation is present in the loss... Read More about Testing for Equal Average Forecast Accuracy in Possibly Unstable Environments.

Wherefore art thou competitors? How situational affordances help differentiate among prosociality, individualism, and competition (2024)
Journal Article
Liu, Y., W. Stivers, A., O. Murphy, R., J. Van Doesum, N., Joireman, J., Gallucci, M., Aharonov-Majar, E., Athenstaedt, U., Bai, L., Böhm, R., R. Buchan, N., Chen, X.-P., B. Dumont, K., B. Engelmann, J., Eriksson, K., Euh, H., Fiedler, S., Friesen, J., Gächter, S., Garcia, C., …Wildschut, T. (2024). Wherefore art thou competitors? How situational affordances help differentiate among prosociality, individualism, and competition. European Journal of Personality, https://doi.org/10.1177/08902070241298850

The Triple Dominance Measure (choosing between prosocial, individualistic, and competitive options) and the Slider Measure (“sliding” between various orientations, for example, from individualistic to prosocial) are two widely used techniques to meas... Read More about Wherefore art thou competitors? How situational affordances help differentiate among prosociality, individualism, and competition.

Fiscal and Macroprudential Policies in a Monetary Union (2024)
Journal Article
Rubio, M., Ferri, J., & Bosca, J. E. (2024). Fiscal and Macroprudential Policies in a Monetary Union. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-024-01376-z

In the European Monetary Union (EMU), monetary policy is determined by the European Central Bank (ECB). This arrangement can give rise to certain national economic imbalances that may potentially be addressed through national policies. Traditionally,... Read More about Fiscal and Macroprudential Policies in a Monetary Union.

Social preferences and the variability of conditional cooperation (2024)
Journal Article
Baader, M., Gächter, S., Lee, K., & Sefton, M. (2024). Social preferences and the variability of conditional cooperation. Economic Theory, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-024-01617-1

We experimentally examine how incentives affect conditional cooperation (i.e., cooperating in response to cooperation and defecting in response to defection) in social dilemmas. In our first study, subjects play eight Sequential Prisoner's Dilemma ga... Read More about Social preferences and the variability of conditional cooperation.

Bonferroni-Type Tests for Return Predictability With Possibly Trending Predictors (2024)
Journal Article
Astill, S., Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., & Robert Taylor, A. M. (2024). Bonferroni-Type Tests for Return Predictability With Possibly Trending Predictors. Journal of Applied Econometrics, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3094

The Bonferroni Q test of Campbell and Yogo (2006) is widely used in empirical studies investigating predictability in asset returns by strongly persistent and endogenous predictors. Its formulation, however, only allows for a constant mean in the pre... Read More about Bonferroni-Type Tests for Return Predictability With Possibly Trending Predictors.

Systemic risk in banking, fire sales, and macroeconomic disasters (2024)
Journal Article
Bougheas, S., Harvey, D. I., Kirman, A., & Nelson, D. (2024). Systemic risk in banking, fire sales, and macroeconomic disasters. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 168, Article 104975. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104975

We develop a dynamic computational network model of the banking system where fire sales provide the amplification mechanism of financial shocks. Each period a finite number of banks offers a large, but finite, number of loans to households. Banks wit... Read More about Systemic risk in banking, fire sales, and macroeconomic disasters.

Price Setting on a Network (2024)
Journal Article
Hinnosaar, T. (in press). Price Setting on a Network. RAND Journal of Economics,

I study price setting within a network of interconnected monopolists. Some firms possess stronger commitment or bargaining power than others, enabling them to influence the pricing decisions of other firms. While it is well-understood that multiple m... Read More about Price Setting on a Network.

Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour (2024)
Journal Article
Upward, R., & Wright, P. W. (2024). Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour. Journal of Public Economics, 239, Article 105253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105253

We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years in the UK. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its imp... Read More about Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour.