Outputs (44)

Uncertainty mapping and probabilistic tractography using Simulation-based Inference in diffusion MRI: A comparison with classical Bayes (2025)
Journal Article
Manzano-Patron, J., Deistler, M., Schröder, C., Kypraios, T., Gonçalves, P. J., Macke, J. H., & Sotiropoulos, S. N. (in press). Uncertainty mapping and probabilistic tractography using Simulation-based Inference in diffusion MRI: A comparison with classical Bayes. Medical Image Analysis,

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) has recently emerged as a powerful framework for Bayesian inference: Neural networks are trained on simulations from a forward model, and learn to rapidly estimate posterior distributions. We here present an SBI frame... Read More about Uncertainty mapping and probabilistic tractography using Simulation-based Inference in diffusion MRI: A comparison with classical Bayes.

Comparative judgement modelling to map forced marriage at local levels (2025)
Journal Article
Seymour, R., Nyarko-Agyei, A., McCabe, H., Severn, K., Sirl, D., Kypraios, T., & Taylor, A. (2025). Comparative judgement modelling to map forced marriage at local levels. Annals of Applied Statistics, 19(1), 419-439. https://doi.org/10.1214/24-AOAS1966

Forcing someone into marriage against their will is a violation of their human rights. In 2021, the county of Nottinghamshire, UK, launched a strategy to tackle forced marriage and violence against women and girls. We set out to map the risk of force... Read More about Comparative judgement modelling to map forced marriage at local levels.

A classical hypothesis test for assessing the homogeneity of disease transmission in stochastic epidemic models (2024)
Journal Article
Aristotelous, G., Kypraios, T., & O'Neill, P. D. (2025). A classical hypothesis test for assessing the homogeneity of disease transmission in stochastic epidemic models. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 52(1), 295-313. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12743

This paper addresses the problem of assessing the homogeneity of the disease transmission process in stochastic epidemic models in populations that are partitioned into social groups. We develop a classical hypothesis test for completed epidemics whi... Read More about A classical hypothesis test for assessing the homogeneity of disease transmission in stochastic epidemic models.

Modelling the impact of wastewater flows and management practices on antimicrobial resistance in dairy farms (2024)
Journal Article
Todman, H., Helliwell, R., King, L., Blanchard, A., Gray-Hammerton, C. J., Hooton, S. P., Baker, M., Margerison, J., Wilson, P., Dodd, C. E. R., Morris, C., Raman, S., Hudson, C., Kreft, J.-U., Hobman, J. L., Kypraios, T., & Stekel, D. J. (2024). Modelling the impact of wastewater flows and management practices on antimicrobial resistance in dairy farms. npj Antimicrobials & Resistance, 2(1), Article 13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44259-024-00029-4

Dairy slurry is a major source of environmental contamination with antimicrobial resistant genes and bacteria. We developed mathematical models and conducted on-farm research to explore the impact of wastewater flows and management practices on antim... Read More about Modelling the impact of wastewater flows and management practices on antimicrobial resistance in dairy farms.

Model-based evaluation of admission screening strategies for the detection and control of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in the English hospital setting (2023)
Journal Article
Pople, D., Kypraios, T., Donker, T., Stoesser, N., Seale, A. C., George, R., Dodgson, A., Freeman, R., Hope, R., Walker, A. S., Hopkins, S., & Robotham, J. (2023). Model-based evaluation of admission screening strategies for the detection and control of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in the English hospital setting. BMC Medicine, 21(1), Article 492. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-023-03007-1

Background
Globally, detections of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) colonisations and infections are increasing. The spread of these highly resistant bacteria poses a serious threat to public health. However, understanding of CPE trans... Read More about Model-based evaluation of admission screening strategies for the detection and control of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in the English hospital setting.

Accelerating Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using incidence data (2023)
Journal Article
Golightly, A., Wadkin, L. E., Whitaker, S. A., Baggaley, A. W., Parker, N. G., & Kypraios, T. (2023). Accelerating Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using incidence data. Statistics and Computing, 33(6), Article 134. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-023-10311-6

We consider the case of performing Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic compartment models, using incomplete time course data consisting of incidence counts that are either the number of new infections or removals in time intervals of fixed len... Read More about Accelerating Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using incidence data.

Bayesian Model Choice for Directional Data (2023)
Journal Article
Fallaize, C. J., & Kypraios, T. (2024). Bayesian Model Choice for Directional Data. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 33(1), 25-34. https://doi.org/10.1080/10618600.2023.2206076

This article is concerned with the problem of choosing between competing models for directional data. In particular, we consider the question of whether or not two independent samples of axial data come from the same Bingham distribution. This is not... Read More about Bayesian Model Choice for Directional Data.

A multistate modeling approach to investigate long-term effects of claw horn disruption lesions and early lesion development in dairy cows (2023)
Journal Article
Thomas, M., Green, M., Kypraios, T., & Kaler, J. (2023). A multistate modeling approach to investigate long-term effects of claw horn disruption lesions and early lesion development in dairy cows. Journal of Dairy Science, https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2021-21749

Claw horn disruption lesions (CHDL) are a leading cause of lameness in dairy cattle, and the development, effect, and pathology of these lesions remains an open area of interest within dairy cattle health. Current literature typically attempts to mea... Read More about A multistate modeling approach to investigate long-term effects of claw horn disruption lesions and early lesion development in dairy cows.

Comparative Judgement Modeling to Map Forced Marriage at Local Levels (2023)
Preprint / Working Paper
Seymour, R., Nyarko-Agyei, A., Severn, K., McCabe, H., Kypraios, T., Sirl, D., & Taylor, A. Comparative Judgement Modeling to Map Forced Marriage at Local Levels

Forcing someone into marriage against their will is a violation of their human rights. In 2021, the county of Nottinghamshire, UK, launched a strategy to tackle forced marriage and violence against women and girls. However, accessing information abou... Read More about Comparative Judgement Modeling to Map Forced Marriage at Local Levels.

Posterior Predictive Checking for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemic Models (2022)
Journal Article
Aristotelous, G., Kypraios, T., & O'Neill, P. D. (2023). Posterior Predictive Checking for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemic Models. Bayesian Analysis, 18(4), 1283-1310. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-ba1336

We address the problem of assessing the fit of stochastic epidemic models to data. Two novel model assessment methods are developed, based on disease progression curves, namely the distance method and the position-time method. The methods are illustr... Read More about Posterior Predictive Checking for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemic Models.