Professor GUILLERMO CRUCES's Outputs (15)

Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance (2025)
Journal Article
Cruces, G., Tortarolo, D., & Vazquez-Bare, G. (2025). Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance. Review of Economics and Statistics, https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01552

We develop a framework to analyze partial population experiments, a generalization of the cluster experimental design where clusters are assigned to different treatment intensities. Our framework allows for heterogeneity in cluster sizes and outcome... Read More about Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance.

Backlash against expert recommendations: Reactions to COVID-19 advice in Latin America (2024)
Journal Article
Albornoz, F., Bottan, N., Cruces, G., Hoffmann, B., & Lombardi, M. (2024). Backlash against expert recommendations: Reactions to COVID-19 advice in Latin America. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 228, Article 106752. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106752

Public adherence with health recommendations is vital for effective crisis response. During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced considerable challenges in persuading the public to adopt new recommendations. Using large-scale survey experiments a... Read More about Backlash against expert recommendations: Reactions to COVID-19 advice in Latin America.

Dishonesty and public employment (2023)
Journal Article
Cruces, G., Rossi, M., & Schargrodsky, E. (2023). Dishonesty and public employment. American Economic Review: Insights, 5(4), 511-526. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20220550

We exploit a natural experiment to study the causal link between dishonest behavior and public employment. When military conscription was mandatory in Argentina, eligibility was determined by both a lottery and a medical examination. To avoid conscri... Read More about Dishonesty and public employment.

On the impacts of higher tobacco taxes in Argentina: a computable general equilibrium approach (2023)
Journal Article
Cicowiez, M., Cruces, G., Falcone, G., & Puig, J. (2023). On the impacts of higher tobacco taxes in Argentina: a computable general equilibrium approach. Tobacco Control, Article 057725. https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2022-057725

Objectives: We analyse the employment effects of increasing tobacco taxation in Argentina by building a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Methods: In line with recent changes in tobacco taxation in the country, the CGE model simulates an in... Read More about On the impacts of higher tobacco taxes in Argentina: a computable general equilibrium approach.

Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment (2023)
Journal Article
Bergolo, M., Ceni, R., Cruces, G., Giaccobasso, M., & Perez-Truglia, R. (2023). Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 15(1), 110-153. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200321

The canonical model of Allingham and Sandmo (1972) predicts that firms evade taxes by optimally trading off between the costs and benefits of evasion. However, there is no direct evidence that firms react to audits in this way. We conducted a large-s... Read More about Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment.

Differential price responses for tobacco consumption: implications for tax incidence (2022)
Journal Article
Cruces, G., Falcone, G., & Puig, J. (2022). Differential price responses for tobacco consumption: implications for tax incidence. Tobacco Control, 31(Suppl 2), s95-s100. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056846

Increasing tobacco taxes is considered the most effective an cost-effective policy to reduce tobacco consumption. However, a common objection to tobacco taxes is that they tend to rely disproportionately on the poorest individuals since less affluent... Read More about Differential price responses for tobacco consumption: implications for tax incidence.

The anatomy of behavioral responses to social assistance when informal employment is high (2020)
Journal Article
Bergolo, M., & Cruces, G. (2021). The anatomy of behavioral responses to social assistance when informal employment is high. Journal of Public Economics, 193, Article 104313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104313

The disincentive effects of social assistance programs on registered (or formal) employment are a first-order policy concern in developing and middle-income countries. We study the impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program in Uruguay on the... Read More about The anatomy of behavioral responses to social assistance when informal employment is high.

How vocational education made women better off but left men behind (2020)
Journal Article
Acevedo, P., Cruces, G., Gertler, P., & Martinez, S. (2020). How vocational education made women better off but left men behind. Labour Economics, 65, Article 101824. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101824

This paper examines the interaction between vocational and soft skills training on labor market outcomes and expectations of youth in the Dominican Republic. Applicants to a training program were randomly assigned to one of three modalities: a full t... Read More about How vocational education made women better off but left men behind.

Misperceptions about Tax Audits (2018)
Journal Article
Bérgolo, M., Ceni, R., Cruces, G., Giaccobasso, M., & Perez-Truglia, R. (2018). Misperceptions about Tax Audits. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 108, 83-87. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20181039

For some entities, the utility-maximizing evasion rate depends substantially on tax audit features, such as audit probabilities and penalty rates. Bergolo et al. (2017) document large misperceptions about these features. In this paper, we expand the... Read More about Misperceptions about Tax Audits.

Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments (2017)
Journal Article
Cavallo, A., Cruces, G., & Perez-Truglia, R. (2017). Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9(3), 1-35. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150147

Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First,... Read More about Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments.

Partisan Interactions: Evidence from a Field Experiment in the United States (2017)
Journal Article
Perez-Truglia, R., & Cruces, G. (2017). Partisan Interactions: Evidence from a Field Experiment in the United States. Journal of Political Economy, 125(4), 1208-1243. https://doi.org/10.1086/692711

We conducted a field experiment to study social influences on partisan political participation. We sent letters to 92,000 contributors during the 2012 presidential election campaign. We randomized features of the letters and measured the effects of t... Read More about Partisan Interactions: Evidence from a Field Experiment in the United States.

Growth, Employment, and Poverty in Latin America (2017)
Book
Cruces, G., Fields, G. S., Jaume, D., & Viollaz, M. (2017). Growth, Employment, and Poverty in Latin America. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198801085.001.0001

Long-Run Effects of Youth Training Programs: Experimental Evidence From Argentina (2016)
Journal Article
Alzúa, M. L., Cruces, G., & Lopez, C. (2016). Long-Run Effects of Youth Training Programs: Experimental Evidence From Argentina. Economic Inquiry, 54(4), 1839-1859. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12348

We study the effect of a job training program for low‐income youth in Cordoba, Argentina. The program included life‐skills and vocational training, as well as internships with private sector employers. Participants were allocated by means of a public... Read More about Long-Run Effects of Youth Training Programs: Experimental Evidence From Argentina.

Learning from potentially-biased statistics: Household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina (2016)
Journal Article
Cavallo, A., Cruces, G., & Perez-Truglia, R. (2016). Learning from potentially-biased statistics: Household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2016, 59-108

When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experim... Read More about Learning from potentially-biased statistics: Household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina.

Work and tax evasion incentive effects of social insurance programs (2014)
Journal Article
Bergolo, M., & Cruces, G. (2014). Work and tax evasion incentive effects of social insurance programs. Journal of Public Economics, 117, 211-228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.04.015

This article studies how social insurance programs shape individual's incentives to take up registered employment and to report earnings to the tax authorities. The analysis is based on a social insurance reform in Uruguay that extended healthcare co... Read More about Work and tax evasion incentive effects of social insurance programs.