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Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour (2024)
Journal Article
UPWARD, R., & WRIGHT, P. (in press). Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour. Journal of Public Economics,

We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years in the UK. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its imp... Read More about Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour.

Testing for Equal Average Forecast Accuracy in Possibly Unstable Environments (2024)
Journal Article
Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., & Zu, Y. (in press). Testing for Equal Average Forecast Accuracy in Possibly Unstable Environments. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,

We consider the issue of testing the null of equal average forecast accuracy in a model where the forecast error loss differential series has a potentially non-constant mean function over time. We show that when time variation is present in the loss... Read More about Testing for Equal Average Forecast Accuracy in Possibly Unstable Environments.

Cognitive impairment and exploitation: connecting fragments of a bigger picture through data (2024)
Journal Article
Abubakar, A. M., Seymour, R. G., Gardner, A., Lambert, I., Fyson, R., & Wright, N. (2024). Cognitive impairment and exploitation: connecting fragments of a bigger picture through data. Journal of Public Health, Article fdae266. https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdae266

Background
Exploitation poses a significant public health concern. This paper highlights ‘jigsaw pieces’ of statistical evidence, indicating cognitive impairment as a pre- or co-existing factor in exploitation.

Methods
We reviewed English Safegu... Read More about Cognitive impairment and exploitation: connecting fragments of a bigger picture through data.

Crop Diversification, Household Welfare and Conflict: Afghanistan 2011–2017 (2024)
Journal Article
Ahmadzai, H., & Morrissey, O. (2024). Crop Diversification, Household Welfare and Conflict: Afghanistan 2011–2017. Journal of Development Studies, https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2024.2404576

We use three waves (2011–2012 to 2016–2017) of nationally representative repeated cross section surveys to study the impact of crop diversification (number of crops grown) on household welfare, measured by real adult equivalent consumption and food e... Read More about Crop Diversification, Household Welfare and Conflict: Afghanistan 2011–2017.

Backlash Against Expert Recommendations: Reactions to COVID-19 Advice in Latin America (2024)
Journal Article
Albornoz, F., Bottan, N., Cruces, G., Hoffmann, B., Torcuato, U., & Tella, D. (in press). Backlash Against Expert Recommendations: Reactions to COVID-19 Advice in Latin America. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,

Public adherence with health recommendations is vital for effective crisis response. During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced considerable challenges in persuading the public to adopt new recommendations. Using large-scale survey experiments a... Read More about Backlash Against Expert Recommendations: Reactions to COVID-19 Advice in Latin America.

To cut or not to cut: Deforestation policy under the shadow of foreign influence (2024)
Journal Article
Aidt, T. S., Albornoz, F., & Hauk, E. (2024). To cut or not to cut: Deforestation policy under the shadow of foreign influence. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 227, Article 106712

This article explores the complex interplay between deforestation policies and foreign influence, using a game theoretical model to analyze geopolitical factors influencing forest conservation decisions in countries with significant rainforests. The... Read More about To cut or not to cut: Deforestation policy under the shadow of foreign influence.

The small open economy in a generalized gravity model (2024)
Journal Article
Demidova, S., Kucheryavyy, K., Naito, T., & Rodríguez-Clare, A. (2024). The small open economy in a generalized gravity model. Journal of International Economics, 152, Article 103997. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103997

To provide sharp answers to basic questions in international trade, a standard approach is to focus on a small open economy (SOE). Whereas the classic tradition is to define a SOE as an economy that takes world prices as given, in the new trade liter... Read More about The small open economy in a generalized gravity model.

At the Top of the Mind: Peak Prices and the Disposition Effect (2024)
Journal Article
Quispe-Torreblanca, E., Hume, D., Gathergood, J., Loewenstein, G., & Stewart, N. (in press). At the Top of the Mind: Peak Prices and the Disposition Effect. Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics,

The disposition effect is the reluctance to sell assets at a loss relative to a salient point of reference, typically assumed to be the purchase price. Using data on stocks and housing sales, we show that the peak price achieved by an asset during th... Read More about At the Top of the Mind: Peak Prices and the Disposition Effect.

How to activate threat perceptions in behavior research: A simple technique for inducing health and resource scarcity threats (2024)
Journal Article
Isler, O., Yilmaz, O., Maule, A. J., & Gächter, S. (2024). How to activate threat perceptions in behavior research: A simple technique for inducing health and resource scarcity threats. Behavior Research Methods, https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-024-02481-6

Understanding our cognitive and behavioral reactions to large-scale collective problems involving health and resource scarcity threats, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, helps us be better prepared for future collective threats. However, existing studie... Read More about How to activate threat perceptions in behavior research: A simple technique for inducing health and resource scarcity threats.

Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance (2024)
Journal Article
Cruces, G., Tortarolo, D., & Vazquez-Bare, G. (in press). Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance. Review of Economics and Statistics,

We develop a framework to analyze partial population experiments, a generalization of the cluster experimental design where clusters are assigned to different treatment intensities. Our framework allows for heterogeneity in cluster sizes and outcome... Read More about Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance.

Bonferroni-Type Tests for Return Predictability with Possibly Trending Predictors (2024)
Journal Article
Astill, S., Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., & Robert Taylor, A. M. (in press). Bonferroni-Type Tests for Return Predictability with Possibly Trending Predictors. Journal of Applied Econometrics,

The Bonferroni Q test of Campbell and Yogo (2006) is widely used in empirical studies investigating predictability in asset returns by strongly persistent and endogenous predictors. Its formulation, however, only allows for a constant mean in the pre... Read More about Bonferroni-Type Tests for Return Predictability with Possibly Trending Predictors.

Tracking trend output using expectations data (2024)
Journal Article
Lee, K., & Mahony, M. (2024). Tracking trend output using expectations data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, Article qnae064. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae064

This article proposes a new approach to measuring trend output that exploits survey data on expectations to distinguish the effects of permanent and transitory shocks and to track the time-variation in the processes underlying the determination of ou... Read More about Tracking trend output using expectations data.

The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data (2024)
Journal Article
Bartelme, D., Mit, A. C., Donaldson, D., & Rodriguez-Clare, A. (in press). The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data. Journal of Political Economy,

The textbook case for industrial policy is well understood. If some sectors are subject to external economies of scale, whereas others are not, a government should subsidize the first group of sectors at the expense of the second. Little is known, ho... Read More about The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data.

On the productivity advantage of cities (2024)
Journal Article
Jacob, N., & Mion, G. (2024). On the productivity advantage of cities. Journal of Economic Geography, 24(5), 679-705. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae020

Agglomeration externalities are the key factor explaining the existence of cities and their size. However, while the various micro foundations of agglomeration externalities stress the importance of total factor productivity (TFP), the empirical evid... Read More about On the productivity advantage of cities.

International Trade Liberalization and Domestic Institutional Reform: Effects of WTO Accession on Chinese Internal Migration Policy (2024)
Journal Article
Tian, Y. (2024). International Trade Liberalization and Domestic Institutional Reform: Effects of WTO Accession on Chinese Internal Migration Policy. Review of Economics and Statistics, 106(3), 794-813. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01175

Economic institutions that impede factor mobility become more costly when an economy experiences substantial transitions such as trade liberalization. I study how trade triggers changes in labor institutions that regulate internal migration in the co... Read More about International Trade Liberalization and Domestic Institutional Reform: Effects of WTO Accession on Chinese Internal Migration Policy.

Inspecting Cross-Border Macro-Financial Mechanisms (2024)
Journal Article
Gerba, E., Leiva-Leon, D., & Rubio, M. (2024). Inspecting Cross-Border Macro-Financial Mechanisms. Journal of International Money and Finance, 145, Article 103094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103094

We model structural time-varying macro-financial linkages between the U.S. and euro area using a large dataset for each region. We extract both real and financial cycles and identify shocks, using a factor model with drifting parameters. To interpret... Read More about Inspecting Cross-Border Macro-Financial Mechanisms.

The role of payoff parameters for cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma (2024)
Journal Article
Gächter, S., Lee, K., Sefton, M., & Weber, T. O. (2024). The role of payoff parameters for cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma. European Economic Review, 166, Article 104753. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104753

The Prisoner's Dilemma is arguably the most important model of social dilemmas, but our knowledge about how its material payoff structure affects cooperation is incomplete. We investigate the effect of variation in material payoffs on cooperation in... Read More about The role of payoff parameters for cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma.

The Coholding Puzzle: New Evidence from Transaction-Level Data (2024)
Journal Article
Gathergood, J., & Olafsson, A. (2024). The Coholding Puzzle: New Evidence from Transaction-Level Data. Review of Financial Studies, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhae016

Why do individuals pay debt interest when they could use their savings to pay down the debt? We explore why individuals “cohold” debt and savings using detailed and highly disaggregated daily-level data on household finances. We find that coholding m... Read More about The Coholding Puzzle: New Evidence from Transaction-Level Data.