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The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy

Matta, Samer; Appleton, Simon; Bleaney, Michael


Samer Matta

Michael Bleaney


© 2016 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK. We use Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the "Arab Spring." Our results suggest that the loss was 5.5 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.4 percent of GDP in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests, and are consistent with those from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of Tunisia's economic growth. Moreover, we find that investment was the main channel through which the economy was adversely impacted by the Arab Spring.


Matta, S., Appleton, S., & Bleaney, M. (2019). The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy. World Bank Economic Review, 33(1), 231-258.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Sep 4, 2016
Online Publication Date Nov 17, 2016
Publication Date Feb 1, 2019
Deposit Date Nov 7, 2016
Publicly Available Date Nov 17, 2016
Journal World Bank Economic Review
Print ISSN 0258-6770
Electronic ISSN 1564-698X
Publisher Oxford University Press
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 33
Issue 1
Pages 231-258
Keywords Arab Spring, Tunisia, Economic Impact, Synthetic Control Methodology
Public URL
Publisher URL
Additional Information This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in World Bank Economic Review following peer review. The version of record The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy
World Bank Econ Rev first published online November 17, 2016 is available online at:


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