Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Fabricating votes for Putin: new tests of fraud and electoral manipulations from Russia

Skovoroda, Rodion; Lankina, Tomila

Fabricating votes for Putin: new tests of fraud and electoral manipulations from Russia Thumbnail


Authors

Rodion Skovoroda

Tomila Lankina



Abstract

We extend the “fraud forensics” research to systematically explain precinct-level and regional variations in electoral manipulations in Russia’s March 2012 presidential election. Parametric last-digit frequency tests (a multivariate extension of last-digit tests) are employed to analyze fraud heterogeneity during the vote count stage. We also utilize author-assembled data harvested from the election monitoring non-governmental organization Golos’s regional reports of misconduct to explore the co-variance of last-digit fraud with other irregularities extending beyond the falsification of electoral records. We find that while higher regional education levels positively correlate with exposure of electoral malpractice, an educated populace may also incentivize regional officials to channel misconduct toward election-day fraud – perhaps because pre-electoral manipulations would be more visible to the public than tampering with ballots, and thus, more vulnerable to exposure. Furthermore, last-digit fraud is associated with (a) fake turnout counts; (b) fake votes disproportionally benefitting Putin; and (c) vote “re-distribution” whereby votes cast for some candidates are systematically miscounted. We also find that citizen reports of election-day misconduct are positively correlated with our region-specific last-digit fraud measures. The results indicate that reports by independent observers of sub-national electoral irregularities could be employed as reasonably reliable indicators of fraud, and could be utilized alongside other data to ascertain the incidence of misconduct in Russia and other settings.

Citation

Skovoroda, R., & Lankina, T. (2016). Fabricating votes for Putin: new tests of fraud and electoral manipulations from Russia. Post-Soviet Affairs, 33(2), 100-123. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2016.1207988

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 3, 2016
Online Publication Date Jul 13, 2016
Publication Date Jul 13, 2016
Deposit Date Nov 3, 2016
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal Post-Soviet Affairs
Print ISSN 1060-586X
Electronic ISSN 1060-586X
Publisher Routledge
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 33
Issue 2
Pages 100-123
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2016.1207988
Keywords Electoral fraud, Russia, Parametric last digit analysis, Election monitoring, Regional politics, Clientelism
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/801186
Publisher URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2016.1207988
Additional Information The Version of Record of this manuscript has been published and is available in Post-Soviet Affairs 13 July 2006 http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/1060586X.2016.1207988

Files





Downloadable Citations