Parallels, prescience and the past: analogical reasoning and contemporary international politics

Mumford, Andrew

Abstract

Analogical reasoning has held a perpetual appeal to policymakers who have often drafted in historical metaphor as a mode of informing decision-making. However, this article contends that since the beginning of the ‘War on Terror’ we have arguably seen the rise of a more potent form of analogy, namely ones that are selected because they fulfil an ideological function. Analogical reasoning as a tool of rational decision-making has increasingly become replaced by analogical reasoning as a tool of trenchant ideologically-informed policy justification. This article addresses three key areas which map out the importance of analogical reasoning to an understanding of developments in contemporary international politics: the relationship between history and politics, in intellectual and policy terms; a critical assessment of the appeal that analogical reasoning holds for policymakers; and the development of a rationale for a more effective use of history in international public policymaking.

Citation

Mumford, A. (2015). Parallels, prescience and the past: analogical reasoning and contemporary international politics. International Politics, 52(1), https://doi.org/10.1057/ip.2014.40

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 11, 2013
• Online Publication Date: Dec 23, 2014
• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2015
• Deposit Date: Jul 15, 2016
• Publicly Available Date: Jul 15, 2016
• Journal: International Politics
• Print ISSN: 1384-5748
• Electronic ISSN: 1740-3898
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 52
• Issue: 1
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/ip.2014.40
• Keywords: analogical reasoning, war on terror, policy making, ideology, history, politics
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/740284
• Publisher URL: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/ip.2014.40