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Civil war and U.S. foreign influence

Albornoz, Facundo; Hauk, Esther

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Authors

Esther Hauk



Abstract

We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domestic bargaining partners, which are known to lead to war due to commitment problems. We test two of our model predictions that allow us to identify the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with the U.S. presidential approval rates. These results withstand several robustness checks and, overall, suggest that foreign influence is a sizable driver of domestic conflict. © 2014 The Authors.

Citation

Albornoz, F., & Hauk, E. (2014). Civil war and U.S. foreign influence. Journal of Development Economics, 110, 64-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.05.002

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 11, 2014
Online Publication Date May 20, 2014
Publication Date 2014-09
Deposit Date Aug 2, 2016
Publicly Available Date Aug 2, 2016
Journal Journal of Development Economics
Print ISSN 0304-3878
Electronic ISSN 0304-3878
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 110
Pages 64-78
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.05.002
Keywords Civil war, Foreign influence, US politics
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/734999
Publisher URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387814000534

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