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Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention

Albornoz, Facundo; Hauk, Esther

Authors

Esther Hauk



Abstract

We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domestic bargaining partners, which are known to lead to war due to commitment problems. We test two of our model predictions that allow us to identify the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with the U.S. presidential approval rates. These results withstand several robustness checks and, overall, suggest that foreign influence is a sizable driver of domestic conflict.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Sep 30, 2014
Journal Journal of Development Economics
Print ISSN 0304-3878
Electronic ISSN 0304-3878
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 110
APA6 Citation Albornoz, F., & Hauk, E. (2014). Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention. Journal of Development Economics, 110, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.05.002
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.05.002
Keywords Civil war, Foreign influence, US politics
Publisher URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387814000534
Copyright Statement Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

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Copyright Statement
Copyright information regarding this work can be found at the following address: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0





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