Pretty faces, marginal races: Predicting election outcomes using trait assessments of British parliamentary candidates

Mattes, Kyle; Milazzo, Caitlin

Abstract

The conventional wisdom on Western European politics leads us to believe that all the "action" lies with parties, because the unified parliamentary delegations in Western Europe draw voters' attention to parties' policies and images. Though British elections take place under a single member district plurality system, British parties, like their continental counterparts, are highly centralised and feature disciplined parliamentary delegations. Despite the strong ties between British candidates and their parties, we demonstrate that perceptions of candidates' personal attributes can be used to predict general election outcomes. Using a computer-based survey where subjects are asked to evaluate real British candidates using only rapidly determined first impressions of facial images, we successfully predict outcomes from the 2010 general election. Moreover, we find that perceptions of candidates' relative attractiveness are particularly useful for predicting outcomes in marginal constituencies. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Citation

Mattes, K., & Milazzo, C. (2014). Pretty faces, marginal races: Predicting election outcomes using trait assessments of British parliamentary candidates. Electoral Studies, 34, 177-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.11.004

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Nov 14, 2013
• Online Publication Date: Nov 26, 2013
• Publication Date: 2014-06
• Deposit Date: Jul 29, 2016
• Publicly Available Date: Jul 29, 2016
• Journal: Electoral Studies
• Print ISSN: 0261-3794
• Electronic ISSN: 1873-6890
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 34
• Pages: 177-189
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.11.004
• Keywords: British Elections, Candidate Traits, Electoral Competition
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/730713
• Publisher URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379413001819
• Contract Date: Jul 29, 2016