A Meta Model Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination

Aristidou, Chrystalleni; Lee, Kevin; Shields, Kalvinder

Abstract

A novel approach to modeling exchange rates is presented based on a set of models distinguished by the drivers of the rate and regime duration. The models are combined into a “meta model” using model averaging and non-nested hypothesis-testing techniques. The meta model accommodates periods of stability and slowly evolving or abruptly changing regimes involving multiple drivers. Estimated meta models for five exchange rates provide a compelling characterization of their determination over the last 40 years or so, identifying “phases” during which the influences from policy and financial market responses to news succumb to equilibrating macroeconomic pressures and vice versa.

Citation

Aristidou, C., Lee, K., & Shields, K. (2022). A Meta Model Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination. . Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/s0731-90532021000043a010

• Acceptance Date: Apr 1, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Jan 18, 2022
• Publication Date: Jan 18, 2022
• Deposit Date: Jan 21, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 21, 2022
• Publisher: Emerald Publishing Limited
• Pages: 199-215
• ISBN: 9781802620627
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/s0731-90532021000043a010
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/7282692
• Publisher URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S0731-90532021000043A010/full/html
• Additional Information: Copyright © 2022 Chrystalleni Aristidou, Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields. This AAM is provided for your own personal use only. It may not be used for resale, reprinting, systematic distribution, emailing, or for any other commercial purpose without the permission of the publisher.