A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts

Morris, David E.; Oakley, Jeremy E.; Crowe, John A.

Abstract

We present a web-based probability distribution elicitation tool: The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool. The Tool is designed to help elicit probability distributions about uncertain model parameters from experts, in situations where suitable data is either unavailable or sparse. The Tool is free to use, and offers five different techniques for eliciting univariate probability distributions. A key feature of the Tool is that users can log in from different sites and view and interact with the same graphical displays, so that expert elicitation sessions can be conducted remotely (in conjunction with tele- or videoconferencing). This will make probability elicitation easier in situations where it is difficult to interview experts in person. Even when conducting elicitation remotely, interviewers will be able to follow good elicitation practice, advise the experts, and provide instantaneous feedback and assistance. © 2013 The Authors.

Citation

Morris, D. E., Oakley, J. E., & Crowe, J. A. (2014). A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts. Environmental Modelling and Software, 52, 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.010

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Oct 13, 2013
• Online Publication Date: Oct 12, 2013
• Publication Date: 2014-02
• Deposit Date: Jul 14, 2016
• Publicly Available Date: Jul 14, 2016
• Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software
• Print ISSN: 1364-8152
• Electronic ISSN: 1873-6726
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 52
• Pages: 1-4
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.010
• Keywords: Bayesian prior distribution; Expert judgement; Subjective probability; Web-based elicitation
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/720721
• Publisher URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815213002533