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Re?parameterization of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search

Fairbanks, Emma L.; Brennan, Marnie L.; Mertens, Peter P. C.; Tildesley, Michael J.; Daly, Janet M.


Emma L. Fairbanks

Michael J. Tildesley

Professor of Viral Zoonoses


African horse sickness (AHS) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Culicoides spp., endemic to sub-Saharan Africa. There have been many examples of historic and recent outbreaks in the Middle East, Asia and Europe. However, not much is known about infection dynamics and outbreak potential in these naive populations. In order to better inform a previously published ordinary differential equation model, we performed a systematic literature search to identify studies documenting experimental infection of naive (control) equids in vaccination trials. Data on the time until the onset of viraemia, clinical signs and death after experimental infection of a naive equid and duration of viraemia were extracted. The time to viraemia was 4.6 days and the time to clinical signs was 4.9 days, longer than the previously estimated latent period of 3.7 days. The infectious periods of animals that died/were euthanized or survived were found to be 3.9 and 8.7 days, whereas previous estimations were 4.4 and 6 days, respectively. The case fatality was also found to be higher than previous estimations. The updated parameter values (along with other more recently published estimates from literature) resulted in an increase in the number of host deaths, decrease in the duration of the outbreak and greater prevalence in vectors.


Fairbanks, E. L., Brennan, M. L., Mertens, P. P. C., Tildesley, M. J., & Daly, J. M. (2022). Re?parameterization of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 69(4), e671-e681.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Sep 29, 2021
Online Publication Date Jan 12, 2022
Publication Date 2022-07
Deposit Date Sep 30, 2021
Publicly Available Date Jan 13, 2023
Journal Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
Print ISSN 1865-1674
Electronic ISSN 1865-1682
Publisher Wiley
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 69
Issue 4
Pages e671-e681
Keywords General Veterinary; General Immunology and Microbiology; General Medicine
Public URL
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