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Simulating land use changes, sediment yields, and pesticide use in the Upper Paraguay River Basin: Implications for conservation of the Pantanal wetland

de Oliveira Roque, Fabio; Guerra, Ang�lica; Johnson, Matthew; Padovania, Carlos; Corbi, Juliano; Covich, Alan P.; Eaton, Donald; Moraes Tomas, Walfrido; Valente-Neto, Francisco; Piovezan Borges, Ana Claudia; Pinho, Alexandra; Barufatii, Alexeia; do Amara Crispim, Bruno; Dettogni Guariento, Rafael; Helena da Silva Andrade, Maria; Tavares Rezende-Filho, Ary; Portela, Rodolfo; Divina, Marcia; C�sar Sampaioda Silva, Julio; Bernadino, C�ssio; Fernanda Gon�alves Gomes de S�, �rica; Cordeiro-Estrela, Pedro; Desbiez, Arnaud; Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Yon, Lisa

Simulating land use changes, sediment yields, and pesticide use in the Upper Paraguay River Basin: Implications for conservation of the Pantanal wetland Thumbnail


Fabio de Oliveira Roque

Ang�lica Guerra

Carlos Padovania

Juliano Corbi

Alan P. Covich

Donald Eaton

Walfrido Moraes Tomas

Francisco Valente-Neto

Ana Claudia Piovezan Borges

Alexandra Pinho

Alexeia Barufatii

Bruno do Amara Crispim

Rafael Dettogni Guariento

Maria Helena da Silva Andrade

Ary Tavares Rezende-Filho

Rodolfo Portela

Marcia Divina

Julio C�sar Sampaioda Silva

C�ssio Bernadino

�rica Fernanda Gon�alves Gomes de S�

Pedro Cordeiro-Estrela

Arnaud Desbiez

Isabel M.D. Rosa

Associate Professor


Contact Person


As a consequence of accelerated and excessive use of pesticides in tropical regions, wilderness areas are under threat; this includes the Pantanal wetlands in the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB). Using a Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) modelling approach, we estimated the expected pesticide load in the Pantanal and the surrounding highlands region for 2050 under three potential scenarios: i) business as usual (BAU), ii) acceleration of anthropogenic changes (ACC), and iii) use of buffer zones around protected areas (BPA). The quantity of pesticides used in the UPRB is predicted to vary depending on the scenario, from an overall increase by as much as 7.4% in the UPRB in the BAU scenario (increasing by 38.5% in the floodplain and 6.6% in the highlands), to an increase of 11.2% in the UPRB (over current use) under the AAC scenario (increasing by 53.8% in the floodplain and 7.5% in the highlands). Much higher usage of pesticides is predicted in sub-basins with greater agricultural areas within major hydrographic basins. Changing the current trajectory of land management in the UPRB is a complex challenge. It will require a substantial shift from current practices, and will involve the implementation of a number of strategies, ranging from the development of new technologies to achieve changes in land use policies, to increasing dialogue between farmers, ranchers, the scientific community, and local or traditional communities through participatory learning processes and outreach.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Mar 3, 2021
Online Publication Date Mar 25, 2021
Publication Date Jul 1, 2021
Deposit Date Mar 4, 2021
Publicly Available Date Mar 26, 2022
Journal Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
Print ISSN 0167-8809
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 314
Article Number 107405
Pages 1-11
Public URL
Publisher URL


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