Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change

Gudmundsson, Lukas; Boulange, Julien; Do, Hong X; Gosling, Simon N; Grillakis, Manolis G; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G; Leonard, Michael; Liu, Junguo; Schmied, Hannes M�ller; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Pokhrel, Yadu; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Satoh, Yusuke; Thiery, Wim; Westra, Seth; Zhang, Xuebin; Zhao, Fang

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale.

Citation

Gudmundsson, L., Boulange, J., Do, H. X., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Leonard, M., Liu, J., Schmied, H. M., Papadimitriou, L., Pokhrel, Y., Seneviratne, S. I., Satoh, Y., Thiery, W., Westra, S., Zhang, X., & Zhao, F. (2021). Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change. Science, 371(6534), 1159-1162. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3996

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 25, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Mar 12, 2021
• Publication Date: Mar 12, 2021
• Deposit Date: Feb 4, 2021
• Publicly Available Date: Mar 12, 2021
• Journal: Science
• Print ISSN: 0036-8075
• Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
• Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 371
• Issue: 6534
• Pages: 1159-1162
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3996
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/5292234
• Publisher URL: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1159
• Additional Information: This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science on 12 Mar 2021, Vol. 371, Issue 6534, pp. 1159-1162 DOI: 10.1126/science.aba3996