Jonathan C. Holmes
Rapid Transmission of a Hyper-Virulent Meningococcal Clone Due to High Effective Contact Numbers and Super Spreaders
Holmes, Jonathan C.; Green, Luke R.; Oldfield, Neil J.; Turner, David P.J.; Bayliss, Christopher D.
Authors
Luke R. Green
Dr NEIL OLDFIELD NEIL.OLDFIELD@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR
Dr DAVID TURNER david.turner@nottingham.ac.uk
CLINICAL ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR
Christopher D. Bayliss
Contributors
Dr NEIL OLDFIELD NEIL.OLDFIELD@NOTTINGHAM.AC.UK
Researcher
Dr DAVID TURNER david.turner@nottingham.ac.uk
Researcher
Abstract
© Copyright © 2020 Holmes, Green, Oldfield, Turner and Bayliss. Rapid transmission, a critical contributory factor in outbreaks of invasive meningococcal disease, requires naïve populations of sufficient size and intermingling. We examined genomic variability and transmission dynamics in a student population subject to an 11-fold increase in carriage of a hypervirulent Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W ST-11 clone. Phylogenetic clusters, mutation and recombination rates were derived by bioinformatic analyses of whole-genome sequencing data. Transmission dynamics were determined by combining observed carriage rates, cluster sizes and distributions with simple SIS models. Between 9 and 15 genetically-distinct clusters were detected and associated with seven residential halls. Clusters had low mutation accumulation rates and infrequent recombination events. Modeling indicated that effective contacts decreased from 10 to 2 per day between the start and mid-point of the university term. Transmission rates fluctuated between 1 and 4% while the R(t) for carriage decreased from an initial rate of 47 to 1. Decreases in transmission values correlated with a rise in vaccine-induced immunity. Observed carriage dynamics could be mimicked by populations containing 20% of super spreaders with 2.3-fold higher effective contact rates. We conclude that spread of this hypervirulent ST-11 meningococcal clone depends on the levels of effective contacts and immunity rather than genomic variability. Additionally, we propose that super-spreaders enhance meningococcal transmission and that a 70% MenACWY immunization level is sufficient to retard, but not fully prevent, meningococcal spread in close-contact populations.
Citation
Holmes, J. C., Green, L. R., Oldfield, N. J., Turner, D. P., & Bayliss, C. D. (2020). Rapid Transmission of a Hyper-Virulent Meningococcal Clone Due to High Effective Contact Numbers and Super Spreaders. Frontiers in Genetics, 11, Article 579411. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2020.579411
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Nov 11, 2020 |
Online Publication Date | Dec 7, 2020 |
Publication Date | Dec 7, 2020 |
Deposit Date | Dec 7, 2020 |
Publicly Available Date | Dec 7, 2020 |
Journal | Frontiers in Genetics |
Electronic ISSN | 1664-8021 |
Publisher | Frontiers Media |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 11 |
Article Number | 579411 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2020.579411 |
Keywords | Genetics(clinical); Molecular Medicine; Genetics |
Public URL | https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/5125126 |
Publisher URL | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fgene.2020.579411/full |
Files
fgene-11-579411
(1.1 Mb)
PDF
Publisher Licence URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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