Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Erwin, Terry; Arets, Eric J.M.M.; Costa, Fl�via; Sullivan, Martin J. P.; Lewis, Simon L.; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Castilho, Carolina; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Sanchez, Aida Cuni; Qie, Lan; Sonk�, Bonaventure; Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez; Ewango, Corneille E. N.; Hubau, Wannes; Baker, Timothy R.; Marimon, Beatriz; Brienen, Roel J. W.; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aiba, Shin Ichiro; Sukri, Rahayu; Alexiades, Miguel N.; Almeida, Everton C.; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida; D�vila, Esteban �lvarez; Loayza, Patricia Alvarez; Andrade, Ana; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Arag�o, Luiz E. O. C.; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arroyo, Luzmila; Ashton, Peter; Aymard C., Gerardo; Baccaro, Fabr�cio B.; Banin, Lindsay F.; Baraloto, Christopher; Camargo, Pl�nio Barbosa; Barlow, Jos; Barroso, Jorcely; Bastin, Jean Fran�ois; Batterman, Sarah A.; Beeckman, Hans; Begne, Serge K.; Bennett, Amy C.; Berenguer, Erika; Berry, Nicholas; Blanc, Lilian; Boeckx, Pascal; Bogaert, Jan; Bonal, Damien; Bongers, Frans; Bradford, Matt; Brearley, Francis Q.; Brncic, Terry; Brown, Foster; Burban, Benoit; Camargo, Jos� Lu�s; Castro, Wendeson; C�ron, Carlos; Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto; Moscoso, Victor Chama; Chave, Jer�me; Chezeaux, Eric; Clark, Connie J.; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Collins, Murray; Comiskey, James A.; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Medina, Massiel Corrales; da Costa, Lola; Dan?�k, Martin; Dargie, Greta C.; Davies, Stuart; Cardozo, Nallaret Davila; de Haulleville, Thales; de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon; Derroire, G�raldine; Di Fiore, Anthony; Doucet, Jean Louis; Dourdain, Aur�lie; Droissant, Vincent; Duque, Luisa Fernanda; Ekoungoulou, Romeo; Elias, Fernando; Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane; Fauset, Sophie; Stahl, Clement; Hall, Jefferson S.; Singh, James; Gilpin, Martin; Hamer, Keith C.; Ferreira, Joice; Llampazo, Gerardo Flores; Hamilton, Alan C.; Harris, David J.; Hart, Terese B.; H�dl, Radim; Herault, Bruno; Herrera, Rafael; Higuchi, Niro; Hladik, Annette; Coronado, Eur�dice Honorio; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Huasco, Walter Huaraca; Jeffery, Kathryn J.; Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana; Kalamandeen, Michelle; Djuikouo, Marie No�l Kamdem; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi; Kho, Lip Khoon; Killeen, Timothy; Foli, Ernest; Klitgaard, Bente; Koch, Alexander; Labri�re, Nicolas; Laurance, William; Laurance, Susan; Leal, Miguel E.; Levesley, Aurora; Lima, Adriano J. N.; Lisingo, Janvier; Lopes, Aline P.; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Lovejoy, Tom; Lovett, Jon C.; Lowe, Richard; Magnusson, William E.; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Manzatto, �ngelo Gilberto; Marimon, Ben Hur; Marshall, Andrew R.; Marthews, Toby; de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias; Maycock, Colin; Melga�o, Karina; Mendoza, Casimiro; Metali, Faizah; Mihindou, Vianet; Milliken, William; Mitchard, Edward T. A.; Morandi, Paulo S.; Mossman, Hannah L.; Nagy, Laszlo; Nascimento, Henrique; Neill, David; Nilus, Reuben; Vargas, Percy N��ez; Palacios, Walter; Camacho, Nadir Pallqui; Peacock, Julie; Pendry, Colin; Pe�uela Mora, Maria Cristina; Pickavance, Georgia C.; Pipoly, John; Pitman, Nigel; Playfair, Maureen; Poorter, Lourens; Poulsen, John R.; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Preziosi, Richard; Prieto, Adriana; Primack, Richard B.; Ram�rez-Angulo, Hirma; Reitsma, Jan; R�jou-M�chain, Maxime; Correa, Zorayda Restrepo; de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues; Bayona, Lily Rodriguez; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agust�n; Rutishauser, Ervan; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Salom�o, Rafael P.; Schietti, Juliana; Sheil, Douglas; Silva, Richarlly C.; Espejo, Javier Silva; Valeria, Camila Silva; Silveira, Marcos; Simo-Droissart, Murielle; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Ford, Andrew; Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos; Stropp, Juliana; Sunderland, Terry; Sv�tek, Martin; Swaine, Michael D.; Swamy, Varun; Taedoumg, Hermann; Talbot, Joey; Taplin, James; Taylor, David; ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Thomas, Sean C.; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Umunay, Peter; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; van der Heijden, Geertje; van der Hout, Peter; van der Meer, Peter; van Nieuwstadt, Mark; Verbeeck, Hans; Vernimmen, Ronald; Vicentini, Alberto; Vieira, Ima C�lia Guimar�es; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; Vleminckx, Jason; Vos, Vincent; Wang, Ophelia; White, Lee J. T.; Willcock, Simon; Woods, John T.; Wortel, Verginia; Young, Kenneth; Zagt, Roderick; Zemagho, Lise; Zuidema, Pieter A.; Zwerts, Joeri A.; Phillips, Oliver L.

doi:10.1126/science.aaw7578

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Erwin, Terry; Arets, Eric J.M.M.; Costa, Fl?via; Sullivan, Martin J. P.; Lewis, Simon L.; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Castilho, Carolina; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Sanchez, Aida Cuni; Qie, Lan; Sonk?, Bonaventure; Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez; Ewango, Corneille E. N.; Hubau, Wannes; Baker, Timothy R.; Marimon, Beatriz; Brienen, Roel J. W.; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aiba, Shin Ichiro; Sukri, Rahayu; Alexiades, Miguel N.; Almeida, Everton C.; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida; D?vila, Esteban ?lvarez; Loayza, Patricia Alvarez; Andrade, Ana; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Arag?o, Luiz E. O. C.; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arroyo, Luzmila; Ashton, Peter; Aymard C., Gerardo; Baccaro, Fabr?cio B.; Banin, Lindsay F.; Baraloto, Christopher; Camargo, Pl?nio Barbosa; Barlow, Jos; Barroso, Jorcely; Bastin, Jean Fran?ois; Batterman, Sarah A.; Beeckman, Hans; Begne, Serge K.; Bennett, Amy C.; Berenguer, Erika; Berry, Nicholas; Blanc, Lilian; Boeckx, Pascal; Bogaert, Jan; Bonal...

Authors

Terry Erwin

Eric J.M.M. Arets

Fl�via Costa

Martin J. P. Sullivan

Simon L. Lewis

Kofi Affum-Baffoe

Carolina Castilho

Ted R. Feldpausch

Aida Cuni Sanchez

Lan Qie

Bonaventure Sonk�

Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez

Corneille E. N. Ewango

Wannes Hubau

Timothy R. Baker

Beatriz Marimon

Roel J. W. Brienen

Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza

David Galbraith

Manuel Gloor

Yadvinder Malhi

Shin Ichiro Aiba

Rahayu Sukri

Miguel N. Alexiades

Everton C. Almeida

Edmar Almeida de Oliveira

Esteban �lvarez D�vila

Patricia Alvarez Loayza

Ana Andrade

Simone Aparecida Vieira

Luiz E. O. C. Arag�o

Alejandro Araujo-Murakami

Luzmila Arroyo

Peter Ashton

Gerardo Aymard C.

Fabr�cio B. Baccaro

Lindsay F. Banin

Christopher Baraloto

Pl�nio Barbosa Camargo

Jos Barlow

Jorcely Barroso

Jean Fran�ois Bastin

Sarah A. Batterman

Hans Beeckman

Serge K. Begne

Amy C. Bennett

Erika Berenguer

Nicholas Berry

Lilian Blanc

Pascal Boeckx

Jan Bogaert

Damien Bonal

Frans Bongers

Matt Bradford

Francis Q. Brearley

Terry Brncic

Foster Brown

Benoit Burban

Jos� Lu�s Camargo

Wendeson Castro

Carlos C�ron

Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro

Victor Chama Moscoso

Jer�me Chave

Eric Chezeaux

Connie J. Clark

Fernanda Coelho de Souza

Murray Collins

James A. Comiskey

Fernando Cornejo Valverde

Massiel Corrales Medina

Lola da Costa

Martin Dan?�k

Greta C. Dargie

Stuart Davies

Nallaret Davila Cardozo

Thales de Haulleville

Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros

Jhon Del Aguila Pasquel

G�raldine Derroire

Anthony Di Fiore

Jean Louis Doucet

Aur�lie Dourdain

Vincent Droissant

Luisa Fernanda Duque

Romeo Ekoungoulou

Fernando Elias

Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert

Sophie Fauset

Clement Stahl

Jefferson S. Hall

James Singh

Martin Gilpin

Keith C. Hamer

Joice Ferreira

Gerardo Flores Llampazo

Alan C. Hamilton

David J. Harris

Terese B. Hart

Radim H�dl

Bruno Herault

Rafael Herrera

Niro Higuchi

Annette Hladik

Eur�dice Honorio Coronado

Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco

Walter Huaraca Huasco

Kathryn J. Jeffery

Eliana Jimenez-Rojas

Michelle Kalamandeen

Marie No�l Kamdem Djuikouo

Elizabeth Kearsley

Ricardo Keichi Umetsu

Lip Khoon Kho

Timothy Killeen

Ernest Foli

Bente Klitgaard

Alexander Koch

Nicolas Labri�re

William Laurance

Susan Laurance

Miguel E. Leal

Aurora Levesley

Adriano J. N. Lima

Janvier Lisingo

Aline P. Lopes

Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez

Tom Lovejoy

Jon C. Lovett

Richard Lowe

William E. Magnusson

Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte

�ngelo Gilberto Manzatto

Ben Hur Marimon

Andrew R. Marshall

Toby Marthews

Simone Matias de Almeida Reis

Colin Maycock

Karina Melga�o

Casimiro Mendoza

Faizah Metali

Vianet Mihindou

William Milliken

Edward T. A. Mitchard

Paulo S. Morandi

Hannah L. Mossman

Laszlo Nagy

Henrique Nascimento

David Neill

Reuben Nilus

Percy N��ez Vargas

Walter Palacios

Nadir Pallqui Camacho

Julie Peacock

Colin Pendry

Maria Cristina Pe�uela Mora

Georgia C. Pickavance

John Pipoly

Nigel Pitman

Maureen Playfair

Lourens Poorter

John R. Poulsen

Axel Dalberg Poulsen

Richard Preziosi

Adriana Prieto

Richard B. Primack

Hirma Ram�rez-Angulo

Jan Reitsma

Maxime R�jou-M�chain

Zorayda Restrepo Correa

Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa

Lily Rodriguez Bayona

Anand Roopsind

Agust�n Rudas

Ervan Rutishauser

Kamariah Abu Salim

Rafael P. Salom�o

Juliana Schietti

Douglas Sheil

Richarlly C. Silva

Javier Silva Espejo

Camila Silva Valeria

Marcos Silveira

Murielle Simo-Droissart

Marcelo Fragomeni Simon

Kanehiro Kitayama

Andrew Ford

Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva

Juliana Stropp

Terry Sunderland

Martin Sv�tek

Michael D. Swaine

Varun Swamy

Hermann Taedoumg

Joey Talbot

James Taplin

David Taylor

Hans ter Steege

John Terborgh

Raquel Thomas

Sean C. Thomas

Armando Torres-Lezama

Peter Umunay

Luis Valenzuela Gamarra

Professor Geertje van der Heijden Geertje.VanDerheijden@nottingham.ac.uk
PROFESSOR OF FOREST ECOLOGY AND GLOBAL CHANGE

Peter van der Hout

Peter van der Meer

Mark van Nieuwstadt

Hans Verbeeck

Ronald Vernimmen

Alberto Vicentini

Ima C�lia Guimar�es Vieira

Emilio Vilanova Torre

Jason Vleminckx

Vincent Vos

Ophelia Wang

Lee J. T. White

Simon Willcock

John T. Woods

Verginia Wortel

Kenneth Young

Roderick Zagt

Lise Zemagho

Pieter A. Zuidema

Joeri A. Zwerts

Oliver L. Phillips

Abstract

Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

Citation

Erwin, T., Arets, E. J., Costa, F., Sullivan, M. J. P., Lewis, S. L., Affum-Baffoe, K., Castilho, C., Feldpausch, T. R., Sanchez, A. C., Qie, L., Sonké, B., Martinez, R. V., Ewango, C. E. N., Hubau, W., Baker, T. R., Marimon, B., Brienen, R. J. W., Monteagudo-Mendoza, A., Galbraith, D., Gloor, M., …Phillips, O. L. (2020). Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. Science, 368(6493), 869-874. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578

Journal Article Type	Article
Acceptance Date	Mar 12, 2020
Online Publication Date	May 22, 2020
Publication Date	May 22, 2020
Deposit Date	May 22, 2020
Publicly Available Date	May 22, 2020
Journal	Science
Print ISSN	0036-8075
Electronic ISSN	1095-9203
Publisher	American Association for the Advancement of Science
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	368
Issue	6493
Pages	869-874
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
Keywords	Multidisciplinary
Public URL	https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/4487196
Publisher URL	https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/869