Modelling diffusion of innovation curves using radiocarbon data

Crema, E. R.; Bloxam, A.; Stevens, C. J.; Vander Linden, M.

Abstract

Archaeological data provide a potential to investigate the diffusion of technological and cultural traits. However, much of this research agenda currently needs more formal quantitative methods to address small sample sizes and chronological uncertainty. This paper introduces a novel Bayesian framework for inferring the shape of diffusion curves using radiocarbon data associated with the presence/absence of a particular innovation. We developed two distinct approaches: 1) a hierarchical model that enables the fitting of an s-shaped diffusion curve whilst accounting for inter-site variations in the probability of sampling the innovation itself, and 2) a non-parametric model that can estimate the changing proportion of the innovation across user-defined time-blocks. The robustness of the two approaches was first tested against simulated datasets and then applied to investigate three case studies, the first pair on the diffusion of farming in prehistoric Japan and Britain and the third on cycles of changes in the burial practices of later prehistoric Britain.

Citation

Crema, E. R., Bloxam, A., Stevens, C. J., & Vander Linden, M. (2024). Modelling diffusion of innovation curves using radiocarbon data. Journal of Archaeological Science, 165, Article 105962. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2024.105962

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Feb 29, 2024
• Online Publication Date: Mar 16, 2024
• Publication Date: 2024-05
• Deposit Date: Jan 13, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 17, 2025
• Journal: Journal of Archaeological Science
• Print ISSN: 0305-4403
• Electronic ISSN: 1095-9238
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 165
• Article Number: 105962
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2024.105962
• Keywords: Bayesian inference, Radiocarbon dating, Diffusion of innovation, Origins of farming, Burial customs, Japan, Great Britain
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/44223494
• Publisher URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305440324000281?via%3Dihub
• Additional Information: This article is maintained by: Elsevier; Article Title: Modelling diffusion of innovation curves using radiocarbon data; Journal Title: Journal of Archaeological Science; CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2024.105962; Content Type: article; Copyright: © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.