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Western Estimates of Russian Military Capabilities and the Invasion of Ukraine

Renz, Bettina

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Authors

BETTINA RENZ bettina.renz@nottingham.ac.uk
Professor of International Security



Abstract

The poor performance of the Russian military during the invasion of Ukraine came as a surprise to many in the West. This prompted a debate about why Russian capabilities had been overestimated. Fingers were pointed at the work of Western military analysts who, in the eyes of some critics, had based their estimates almost entirely on numbers and technology, resulting in mistaken predictions of a quick and decisive Russian victory. It has since been suggested that changes to the practices of Western military analysis are required if similar future failures are to be avoided. This article takes stock of this debate, proposing that the reasons for Western overestimates of Russian military capabilities and the lessons to be learned from this are far more complex than suggested by the critics. Discussing the political nature of military assessments and defense debates, the problems inherent in military analysis, and the difficulties associated with predicting outcomes in war, it concludes that laying blame for overestimates of Russian military power on Western experts is a fallacy. Expectations of achieving accurate future military assessments by refining the analytical base need to be tempered.

Citation

Renz, B. (2023). Western Estimates of Russian Military Capabilities and the Invasion of Ukraine. Problems of Post-Communism, 71(3), 219-231. https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2023.2253359

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Aug 16, 2023
Online Publication Date Sep 12, 2023
Publication Date Sep 12, 2023
Deposit Date Aug 23, 2023
Publicly Available Date Mar 13, 2025
Journal Problems of Post-Communism
Print ISSN 1075-8216
Electronic ISSN 1557-783X
Publisher Routledge
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 71
Issue 3
Pages 219-231
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2023.2253359
Keywords Russia; Putin; Ukraine invasion; NATO; military analysis; strategy
Public URL https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/24579588
Publisher URL https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10758216.2023.2253359

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