Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model

Hill, Edward; Prosser, Naomi; Brown, Paul; Ferguson, Eamonn; Green, Martin; Kaler, Jasmeet; Keeling, Matt; Tildesley, Michael

Abstract

Human behaviour is critical to effective responses to livestock disease outbreaks, especially with respect to vaccination uptake. Traditionally, mathematical models used to inform this behaviour have not taken heterogeneity in farmer behaviour into account. We address this by exploring how heterogeneity in farmers vaccination behaviour can be incorporated to inform mathematical models. We developed and used a graphical user interface to elicit farmers (n = 60) vaccination decisions to an unfolding fast-spreading epidemic and linked this to their psychosocial and behavioural profiles. We identified, via cluster analysis, robust patterns of heterogeneity in vaccination behaviour. By incorporating these vaccination behavioural groupings into a mathematical model for a fast-spreading livestock infection, using computational simulation we explored how the inclusion of heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour may impact epidemiological and economic focused outcomes. When assuming homogeneity in farmer behaviour versus configurations informed by the psychosocial profile cluster estimates, the modelled scenarios revealed a disconnect in projected distributions and threshold statistics across outbreak size, outbreak duration and economic metrics.

Citation

Hill, E., Prosser, N., Brown, P., Ferguson, E., Green, M., Kaler, J., Keeling, M., & Tildesley, M. (2023). Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 219, Article 106019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106019

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Aug 29, 2023
• Online Publication Date: Sep 4, 2023
• Publication Date: 2023-10
• Deposit Date: Jul 9, 2024
• Publicly Available Date: Jul 12, 2024
• Journal: Preventive Veterinary Medicine
• Print ISSN: 0167-5877
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 219
• Article Number: 106019
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106019
• Public URL: https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/17087784
• Publisher URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167587723001836