Leighton Vaughan Williams
Forecasting the outcome of closed-door decisions: evidence from 500 years of betting on papal conclaves
Vaughan Williams, Leighton; Paton, David
Abstract
Closed-door decisions may be defined as decisions in which the outcome is determined by a limited number of decision-makers and where the process is shrouded in at least some secrecy. In this paper, we examine the use of betting markets to forecast one particular closed-door decision, the election of the Pope. Within the context of 500 years of papal election betting, we employ a unique dataset of betting on the 2013 papal election to investigate how new public information is incorporated into the betting odds. Our results suggest that the market was generally unable to incorporate effectively such information. We venture some possible explanations for our findings and offer suggestions for further research into the prediction and predictability of other ‘closed-door’ decisions.
Citation
Vaughan Williams, L., & Paton, D. (2015). Forecasting the outcome of closed-door decisions: evidence from 500 years of betting on papal conclaves. Journal of Forecasting, 34(5), 391-404. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2339
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Feb 23, 2015 |
Online Publication Date | Mar 22, 2015 |
Publication Date | Aug 31, 2015 |
Deposit Date | Dec 18, 2018 |
Publicly Available Date | Feb 19, 2019 |
Journal | Journal of Forecasting |
Print ISSN | 0277-6693 |
Publisher | Wiley |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 34 |
Issue | 5 |
Pages | 391-404 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2339 |
Keywords | Management Science and Operations Research; Strategy and Management; Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty; Modelling and Simulation; Computer Science Applications |
Public URL | https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1421334 |
Contract Date | Dec 18, 2018 |
Files
Forcasting The Outcome Of Closed Door
(610 Kb)
PDF
You might also like
Law, Ethics and Lockdowns: impacts on life, liberty and the economy
(2023)
Journal Article
Financial transaction taxes and market structure: lessons from the gambling industry
(2022)
Journal Article
Downloadable Citations
About Repository@Nottingham
Administrator e-mail: discovery-access-systems@nottingham.ac.uk
This application uses the following open-source libraries:
SheetJS Community Edition
Apache License Version 2.0 (http://www.apache.org/licenses/)
PDF.js
Apache License Version 2.0 (http://www.apache.org/licenses/)
Font Awesome
SIL OFL 1.1 (http://scripts.sil.org/OFL)
MIT License (http://opensource.org/licenses/mit-license.html)
CC BY 3.0 ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/)
Powered by Worktribe © 2025
Advanced Search